631 replies to this topic

[dharma]

miners continue to lead,  gold has been weak and for an extended pd of time , miners are firm to higher. this usually leads to big rallies in

the sector. seasonally we are in the weak time of year. so either we Vor make some kind of double bottom. oscillators are oversold.  and gdx has fired the warning shot breaking out of its large pennant pattern. its quite normal for it to pull back and test the breakout.   i am cautiously bullish herehaving bought weakness in several issues that i favor. its a very rare situation where a major buys 7.3 million shares of an explorer on the open market.  in short valuations are extreme   the current environment can be explosive.  as always do your own dd,  

dharma

 

[dharma]

gundlach talks about this too

The chart shows the S&P Commodities index, divided by the S&P 500 Index. The chart measures how many units of resources you can buy with a unit of the S&P 500. This chart has never been at a lower level than where it's sitting right now, suggesting we may see a major mean reversion where the S&P Commodities Index outperforms the S&P 500 Index for a number of years. https://www.gold-eag.../sp071018-2.jpg

dharma

[gannman]

according to the wave count i have this should be a bottoming area and a very strong rally

 

should ensue. if not then my count is wrong i have no wiggle room here fwiw

[dharma]

not sure if 1238 was the low or the low is yet to be formed hadik has 18-25 as significant , fwiw

not doing anything here, i see signs of rising inflation , which will later translate into a support for gold  . right now the bears are pressing the issue. and looking at open interest , they are adding shorts.  keeping my hands in my pockets unless something i like gets taken behind the woodshed. 

dharma

hadik june 23

https://www.howestre.../buy-the-rumor/

Edited by dharma, 11 July 2018 - 10:18 AM.

[jabat]

Cdleanley ST count for ABX

ABX Micro update. C wave down could be in iv now.  Nice confluence of fibs as well.  If we head above 13.20, then I think the bottom is already in.

 

 

[jabat]

I'm considering the following count in gold which is actually very bullish and would match ABX.  The problem I see with an ABC up in gold is that the C wave was unusually small compared to the A wave (which is not very common).  I think this count is just as likely even considered in isolation without looking at other charts.  Wave (ii) hit .618 on the nose.  OML still possible, those slight new lows are pretty common in PMs to run stops.  But I'm ST bullish bias as long as we stay above 1243-1245-ish area.

 

 

[dharma]

here we are in a trade war, no one has ever won a trade war. it curtails trade, costs more for consumers, and creates animosity among nations. study history? we dont need no history!?  https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/36968091_1677720545659078_3333024965363499008_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=3cd2d0da9d641afa099e10c67a3be6ae&oe=5BE39F5D 

i couldnt get a clean 5 up off the 1238 lows.  this upcoming bottom should create momo divergences and hopefully the miners remain firm vs the metal.  the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place   the key is not to find yourself in the trading graveyards along w/other traders who got too aggressive calling a bottom

dharma

[dougie]

looks to me like gold needs some more action to the downside here to finish out a C

 

thinking Hadiks dates about right...

 

 

of course one needs to keep in mind bearish possibilities but i think they are more remote now

[dougie]

was the move in GDX from 28th to 6th 5 waves up or an a b c? Enquiring minds....

[dharma]

was the move in GDX from 28th to 6th 5 waves up or an a b c? Enquiring minds....

this is one of the challenges of wave counting, however used in conjunction w. oscillators the picture can  clarify.   i also like the intermarket divergences w/the metal and miners.  gotta step back and give the picture time to clarify. and then its never a bad idea to wait for a higher low(wave 2) . one thing is for sure the problems that brought me to the sector continue to amp up.   right now none of that matters, but at some point it will. 

dharma