631 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

Russ, can you bring us up to speed with your forecasts?

[Russ]

for Smitty,  I have a low for the us dollar index around oct. 3 as I said, that could tie in with the other chart posted on here, indicating if gold formed a high then it would lead to more bearishness, perhaps just a test of the august low, not sure about that at this point. will keep you posted.

Edited by Russ, 17 September 2018 - 04:46 PM.

[Smithy]

Thanks, Russ

[dharma]

trade wars lead to shooting wars. obviously the us imports much more from china than china imports from the us.  one way to level the field is to bring down the value of the dollar  https://www.bloomber...ion-risk-climbs

lets see how all this plays out

hadik is long gold now. 

dharma

[senorBS]

FVX (5 yr note) closed today within a few ticks of the May highs as interest rates surged today, which were the highest interest rates since 2009. China has other responses beside tariffs to use in this widening trade war, China does not like to "lose face" this is a very interesting/dangerous time frame

 

Senor

[jshaef1]

Commercial Banks create money to buy US Treasuries.  There is no limit to how much money they can create and there are no reserve requirements for these investments.  The treasuries are held in special held to maturity accounts that allow them to avoid interest rate risk.  I am relatively sure the Chinese have a similar direct pruchase arrangements with the US Treasury.

 

You should look for danger elsewhere, even though I get your drift about the debt levels.

[senorBS]

Commercial Banks create money to buy US Treasuries.  There is no limit to how much money they can create and there are no reserve requirements for these investments.  The treasuries are held in special held to maturity accounts that allow them to avoid interest rate risk.  I am relatively sure the Chinese have a similar direct pruchase arrangements with the US Treasury.

 

You should look for danger elsewhere, even though I get your drift about the debt levels.

perhaps, but at some point the markets may no longer look the other way at this printing press, that is the big Q IMO, I am a chart follower but its interesting to speculate on this stuff

 

Senor

[dharma]

that is the question . how much debt can the market tolerate before there is a major reaction. dont have the answer . but it seems that we are going to find out. 

the dollars strength has put pressure on countries that have borrowed in dollars. 

waiting for the market to tip its hand . the commercials are long, which is an event. they will spring the trap.  when ?

dharma

[jshaef1]

https://www.bloomber...ore-up-finances

 

The pressure seems to be on gold in the foreseeable future--we will see for how long.

[senorBS]

https://www.bloomber...ore-up-finances

 

The pressure seems to be on gold in the foreseeable future--we will see for how long.

and what is the one investment that allowed the public to not get hurt badly by the devaluation? gold is about the only thing people can hold that helps protects them financially in these countries that are seeing their currencies get crushed