631 replies to this topic

[dharma]

what I am worried about is that this huge sideways pattern is a bearish contracting tri in stuff like GDX and GDXJ and we will at least thrust below this years low or perhaps even the Dec 2016 low in those indices. Little worried that things like HUI and GDX/gold ratios are rolling over as well, down to 25% long, maybe I am a contrary indicator here but feels "heavy" here in the miners, still a chance at a really good low but rather play it safer for now and I am traveling next week as well, as always DYODD

 

Senor

prudence is the word here. 

after all we have little sign of upside here.  

i doubt that its all a consolidation for a big move lower, but who knows. i remember in the 70s gold was brought to its knees in 75/76  and at some point the big players went long the miners.  right here right now. all i see on all fronts is pressure. definitely a time for caution. surviving to play another day is the name of the game

dharma

[SemiBizz]

Pretty simple really... from here

 

XAU

 

S1 - 76

 

S2 - 71

 

The last low was just under 40... still a long way away.

[SemiBizz]

The Previous Low was made in the middle of the night on 7/2... and that was on no volume at all...

 

It hit the support on lighter volume and exploded higher when the volume came in the regular session...

 

 

So this is what the gold bugs can hope for on Sunday Night, a light volume 3 AM washout followed by short squeeze, like this last one...

[SemiBizz]

In Fact... I went ahead and took short term profits on my shorts...

 

This really looks like a setup to get under the low Sunday night and take it higher from there in the regular session on stronger volume...

 

anyway, the money is in the bank...

[senorBS]

In Fact... I went ahead and took short term profits on my shorts...

 

This really looks like a setup to get under the low Sunday night and take it higher from there in the regular session on stronger volume...

 

anyway, the money is in the bank...

While I am being cautious and went home 25% long I think playing the short side in gold/silver or the miners at this time is poor risk/reward given the technical/sentiment/Ewave set up. Daily stuff is very oversold in gold and silver and both registered daily divergences today against new decline lows for the year, that guarantees nothing but when this set up occurs it leads to a very good bottom, we see

 

Senor

[SemiBizz]

I am only interested in shorting this sector...

 

All the risk right now is on the long side IMO.

 

I will wait for the retracement to 1251 and short it again...

 

May not seem like it, but we're in the middle of a big liquidation into the US$...

 

So I'm not going to fight that...

[senorBS]

I am only interested in shorting this sector...

 

All the risk right now is on the long side IMO.

 

I will wait for the retracement to 1251 and short it again...

 

May not seem like it, but we're in the middle of a big liquidation into the US$...

 

So I'm not going to fight that...

I disagree but that's what makes markets, and in any case I think until we see some confirmation of either the miners breaking out of their sideways pattern or gold/silver blowing out these developing bullish divergences a lower risk stance is warranted, at least that's how I view it

 

Senor

 

Senor

[jabat]

Recent history of Venus retrograde

 

[jabat]

Patience gold bugs, Venus says the low is just about here...July 23rd...these last few days might shake the tree pretty hard, might not...

 

 

[Smithy]

Sunday 7/15    gold 1241  silver  15.77

 

The squeezed weekly silver BB have occurred after almost a year's down move. It is the tightest squeeze in 10 years and so far has now   broken out to the downside. While there is the possibility that this is a fake out and silver (and gold) turn and head north on Monday, I have to go with the greatest probability which is silver to $13-$14 and gold $1210ish. (If G&S turn on Monday that would be very bullish.)