Member
Posted 15 October 2018 - 03:40 PM
Wave 4 of C of 2 looks complete at this mornings highs - Wave C of 4 could extend, but chances are 50/50 IMHO
Note: a move below 68.72, then 67.82 on $XAU increase the odds that Wave 4 is complete, FWIW
Looks like $XAU did a minute 5-waves down for i after the morning high - followed by a ii - tomorrow should open weaker - we will see!
Member
Posted 16 October 2018 - 10:48 AM
still on the fence . i can see the possibility that we bottomed . if so the market has to prove it by rallying above 118.5 if so then i think the lows are in and we are off
if not then i think there is one mor low in the cards
cautiously bullish here
prove it!!!!\
dharma
Member
Posted 16 October 2018 - 12:36 PM
still on the fence . i can see the possibility that we bottomed . if so the market has to prove it by rallying above 118.5 if so then i think the lows are in and we are off
if not then i think there is one mor low in the cards
cautiously bullish here
prove it!!!!\
dharma
yeah, could be an abc up in a lot of stuff, or this could be a modest consolidation and we go higher, I can see it either way as well, I do currently "lean" to the bullish case but I want to watch this pullback closely to either get back in or leave it alone
Senor
Member
Posted 16 October 2018 - 03:00 PM
todays action to me looks like a gap fill
on the hourly charts the mining indexes look like a flag pattern
so we wait and see the action does look constructive
dharma
Member
Posted 17 October 2018 - 09:54 AM
gold appears to be spinning its wheels .making no upside progress
a broken record -i see both sides of the case . is this a 4foC bounce w/wave 5 to come or
have we bottomed and started a new impulse wave 3 up
we are in almost uncharted waters as far as the cot. will the commercials continue to lay in the weeds building their long positions. eg ted butler believes jpm has built a huge physical hoarde of silver. so, since the commercials are also quite long paper gold on the comex. and the large specs have reversed their bullish stance and are now quite bearish
the dollar has a large synthetic short position. ie 3rd world has borrowed in dollars. in fact i read yesterday turkey plans to issue a bond in dollars. so they can borrow even more money. the commercials are lopsided short the dollar.
the long term picture is quite clear. there is an enormous mountain of debt which will pretend to be paid off , so some point down the road there will be monetary problems we are in a tightening cycle of interest rates.
so, i lean bullish but @this juncture i need to see the market prove it to me above 118.5 gld and i will be bullish w/my money. until then i wait. 78 was the year , gold started to break out above 400 and go parabolic. i believe that this bull lasts longer than the 80 top ie we go up past 2020.
anyway that is my ramble
dharma
Member
Posted 17 October 2018 - 02:23 PM
nothing new from the fed!
hadik
as of todays update
he is looking for a little more rally in the broad market
a couple of days pull back in the precious metals
then
a resumption in the upward march in the metals and miners
.
if the impulse wave count is correct then that is what to expect(my 2c)its what i am looking for if the bulls are in control
dharma
the other day poland increased its gold reserves
now this https://gracelandupd...7tenbagger1.png
when times are bad cbs dont trust eah other and they exchange gold as payment!
Edited by dharma, 17 October 2018 - 02:24 PM.
Member
Posted 17 October 2018 - 03:06 PM
nothing new from the fed!
hadik
as of todays update
he is looking for a little more rally in the broad market
a couple of days pull back in the precious metals
then
a resumption in the upward march in the metals and miners
.
if the impulse wave count is correct then that is what to expect(my 2c)its what i am looking for if the bulls are in control
dharma
the other day poland increased its gold reserves
now this https://gracelandupd...7tenbagger1.png
when times are bad cbs dont trust eah other and they exchange gold as payment!
Yeah, "so far" I have to say the pause/high level consolidation appears bullish. Went home solidly but not aggressively long. Also there is simply a dearth of posting and nothing close to overconfidence, in fact I'd say a lack of any confidence rules the day, I view that as constructive, we see
Senor
Member
Posted 17 October 2018 - 03:55 PM
nothing new from the fed!
hadik
as of todays update
he is looking for a little more rally in the broad market
a couple of days pull back in the precious metals
then
a resumption in the upward march in the metals and miners
.
if the impulse wave count is correct then that is what to expect(my 2c)its what i am looking for if the bulls are in control
dharma
the other day poland increased its gold reserves
now this https://gracelandupd...7tenbagger1.png
when times are bad cbs dont trust eah other and they exchange gold as payment!
Yeah, "so far" I have to say the pause/high level consolidation appears bullish. Went home solidly but not aggressively long. Also there is simply a dearth of posting and nothing close to overconfidence, in fact I'd say a lack of any confidence rules the day, I view that as constructive, we see
Senor
Or outright exhaustion! LOL
Member
Posted 18 October 2018 - 10:51 AM
doing som
e light buying . flag patterns on the miners charts. large specs very short. time to put some feet in the water.
gold remains firm , but no upside progress above the 1235
2yr rivals highs of 08. artificially low interest rates for so long showing stimulating effects
correction in the broad market nearing its end. after 500+up day in dow , no follow through yesterday buying may have exhausted
coming into indian festival buying season physical well bid.
cautious but off the fence
dharma
miners seem like value
ceo of abx accumulating shares he is ex gs
Member
Posted 19 October 2018 - 11:08 AM
talking to mysefl
gold and the miners appear to be flagging. in spite of a big down move yesterday the miners were firm =something different
sentiment is important at extremes , which is what we have in the present cot reports. the last time the commercials were long was 01
so not a common occurrence . the move will happen in bankster time
i had stayed away from abx for years . it seemed they were aligned w/the banks not gold . well john thornton became ceo , former gs president, and he has accumulated shares ,not selling any, in spite of the price soaring. . so abx is a heads up. things have changed dramatically there
dharma
