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bottoming action for the start of a big rally


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#581 senorBS

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 07:49 PM

 

 

 

looks to me like the broad market is set up for its year end rally. imo it will be a B wave , which could make new hghs

the set up is there, ie inverse h&s in gold , gdx,hui, platinum, and copper .  when the necklines will be taken out is the question. 

as an aside in the new forecaster armstrong 11.22 calling for a panic cycle.  he is calling for a massive bond market collapse.  this interview took place 9/18   for some reason it will not allow me to put the link in for the trailer!11!!!!

we shall see.

dharma

I have been keeping a very close eye on interest rates, so that Armstrong warning is very interesting to me, is the bond market finally going to call us out on our horrendous deficits and debt levels? If so there will be a chitstorm, we see

 

Senor

 

BTW the INTEREST PAID on the National debt on the fiscal yr just ended Oct 31 is expect to be just over $500 billion dollars, yes 1/2 a Trillion! That's a good portion of the projected deficit for that 2018 fiscal year. Next years deficit is expected to be around ONE trillion, so overall debt just keeps marching northward of 20 TRILLION, and the more rates rise the faster that debt increases, just think if we have a bond "problem"? Man, this could get REAL interesting

 

Senor

 

yes, in a new york minute. its coming just dont know when. the interest on the debt is now larger than the defense budget!! in 01 there were sputters and spurts to gold beginning its trek from 252 -1924 . tough to say w/conviction if the bottom is in or not. breaking convincingly on volume over the neckline would be a good 1st clue.today is the start of 5 days of diwali the rupee hitting the skids against the dollar has caused gold to go up against the rupee, making it unaffordable and out of reach for indian buyers. so the lack of physical demand has made for a lackluster gold market.its certainly not a time to bet the farm . in 03 one of my neighbors mortgaged his house and took the money and bought gold in the low 400s.   this could turn out to be like that, but i can see many forces that could weigh on gold.  eg what will happen if the jig is up on bonds.? that is a major event! i can see the synthetic short position in the dollar causing the dollar to run. putting pressure on gold.  for me these are murky waters.  but all the while the backdrop for the pms gets brighter and brighter. its just what happens between now and then

dharma

 

For me this is and has been major "basing " action where picking THE low or trying to will be an exercise in futility, IMO many miners have bottomed and some have bottomed in recent weeks/days - I pointed our NEM  a few weeks ago in a possible wave 5 of C of a huge 2 or B (looks done IMO), PAAS today reached the lowest point(13.95 low) since its 2016 top and may also be ending a wave 5 of C, SILJ made a similar low recently as well. I am be wrong but I view this as likely being the 9th inning before a big rally begins, so I am holding an unleveraged 50% long position in what I view as quality select issues. as always DYODD

 

Senor



#582 dharma

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Posted 07 November 2018 - 10:25 PM

 

 

 

 

looks to me like the broad market is set up for its year end rally. imo it will be a B wave , which could make new hghs

the set up is there, ie inverse h&s in gold , gdx,hui, platinum, and copper .  when the necklines will be taken out is the question. 

as an aside in the new forecaster armstrong 11.22 calling for a panic cycle.  he is calling for a massive bond market collapse.  this interview took place 9/18   for some reason it will not allow me to put the link in for the trailer!11!!!!

we shall see.

dharma

I have been keeping a very close eye on interest rates, so that Armstrong warning is very interesting to me, is the bond market finally going to call us out on our horrendous deficits and debt levels? If so there will be a chitstorm, we see

 

Senor

 

BTW the INTEREST PAID on the National debt on the fiscal yr just ended Oct 31 is expect to be just over $500 billion dollars, yes 1/2 a Trillion! That's a good portion of the projected deficit for that 2018 fiscal year. Next years deficit is expected to be around ONE trillion, so overall debt just keeps marching northward of 20 TRILLION, and the more rates rise the faster that debt increases, just think if we have a bond "problem"? Man, this could get REAL interesting

 

Senor

 

yes, in a new york minute. its coming just dont know when. the interest on the debt is now larger than the defense budget!! in 01 there were sputters and spurts to gold beginning its trek from 252 -1924 . tough to say w/conviction if the bottom is in or not. breaking convincingly on volume over the neckline would be a good 1st clue.today is the start of 5 days of diwali the rupee hitting the skids against the dollar has caused gold to go up against the rupee, making it unaffordable and out of reach for indian buyers. so the lack of physical demand has made for a lackluster gold market.its certainly not a time to bet the farm . in 03 one of my neighbors mortgaged his house and took the money and bought gold in the low 400s.   this could turn out to be like that, but i can see many forces that could weigh on gold.  eg what will happen if the jig is up on bonds.? that is a major event! i can see the synthetic short position in the dollar causing the dollar to run. putting pressure on gold.  for me these are murky waters.  but all the while the backdrop for the pms gets brighter and brighter. its just what happens between now and then

dharma

 

For me this is and has been major "basing " action where picking THE low or trying to will be an exercise in futility, IMO many miners have bottomed and some have bottomed in recent weeks/days - I pointed our NEM  a few weeks ago in a possible wave 5 of C of a huge 2 or B (looks done IMO), PAAS today reached the lowest point(13.95 low) since its 2016 top and may also be ending a wave 5 of C, SILJ made a similar low recently as well. I am be wrong but I view this as likely being the 9th inning before a big rally begins, so I am holding an unleveraged 50% long position in what I view as quality select issues. as always DYODD

 

Senor

 

while i agree w/you its what i am seeing in many individual miners. and there is that inverse h&s pattern in gdx/hui.  i remind myself that miners have a loose relationship w/the metals . it expands and contracts at different points in the cycle. i am also long as i believe the situation warrants reasonable exposure

dharma


Edited by dharma, 07 November 2018 - 10:26 PM.


#583 senorBS

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:06 AM

did some light selective adding this morning into gap fills or marginal new lows (Paas), now about 60% long with tight stops on this mornings buys only, as always DYODD

 

Senor



#584 dharma

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 03:31 PM

no surprises from the fed

hadik has the high for this upmove in the broad market nov 19-23 maybe stretching into early december. it is the santa claus rally

w/debts worldwide expanding and now w/interest payments in the usa more than the defense budget

there is one way out of this debt burden and that is inflation.   will it work? i dont know but its a big tax on the poor. and middle class

there are many trades going on world wide where the parties circumvent the dollar eg usa to india dont buy iranian oil  so they use gold and rupees to buy iranian oil

 more and more of this is evident.  there is a huge synthetic short position in the dollar. so countries need to buy dollars to pay their debts

lots of spinning plates.

when this reaches the tipping point is anyones guess.  and now to top it off there are trade wars . who pays for the tariffs? the consumer of course. it cost him/her more to purchase those solar panels made in china. 

then there is the fed having created 0 interest rates , now rates are normalizing .  who is buying bonds at  these low rates? 

lots of questions

gold fell asleep. 

dharma



#585 dharma

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 02:57 PM

the gold market looks to me to be bottoming into mon/tues. setting up for a larger rally into decembr

the broad market lookis to be pulling back in this same time frame

hopefully more clarification comes into the pm space w/the set up for a larger rally once this decline emds in the next day or two

dharma



#586 Russ

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:08 PM

 

Comments by Highlander

 

The Bears should want to see a high Oct 5th turndate, not a low...A low would carry a countertrend rally for a minimum of 3 months...Gold 7 year chart with V Retro's...

v091418.png

 

 

Looks like this chart may be correct, I have a high for jdst around the turn date on the chart Jabat posted by 'highland' before.  


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"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
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#587 Russ

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 03:27 PM

A nov. low may be followed by a rally into Feb. 2019.   


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#588 jabat

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Posted 11 November 2018 - 06:39 AM

Hurst Analysis on Gold

https://www.youtube....eature=youtu.be



#589 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2018 - 07:35 PM

Fantastic stuff Jabat, thanks for posting, his analysis seems to be generally bullish going into late 2019 and beyond.


Edited by Russ, 11 November 2018 - 07:36 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#590 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2018 - 07:48 PM

This chart agrees with him for a high in late 2019.. 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/