looks to me like the broad market is set up for its year end rally. imo it will be a B wave , which could make new hghs
the set up is there, ie inverse h&s in gold , gdx,hui, platinum, and copper . when the necklines will be taken out is the question.
as an aside in the new forecaster armstrong 11.22 calling for a panic cycle. he is calling for a massive bond market collapse. this interview took place 9/18 for some reason it will not allow me to put the link in for the trailer!11!!!!
we shall see.
dharma
I have been keeping a very close eye on interest rates, so that Armstrong warning is very interesting to me, is the bond market finally going to call us out on our horrendous deficits and debt levels? If so there will be a chitstorm, we see
Senor
BTW the INTEREST PAID on the National debt on the fiscal yr just ended Oct 31 is expect to be just over $500 billion dollars, yes 1/2 a Trillion! That's a good portion of the projected deficit for that 2018 fiscal year. Next years deficit is expected to be around ONE trillion, so overall debt just keeps marching northward of 20 TRILLION, and the more rates rise the faster that debt increases, just think if we have a bond "problem"? Man, this could get REAL interesting
Senor
yes, in a new york minute. its coming just dont know when. the interest on the debt is now larger than the defense budget!! in 01 there were sputters and spurts to gold beginning its trek from 252 -1924 . tough to say w/conviction if the bottom is in or not. breaking convincingly on volume over the neckline would be a good 1st clue.today is the start of 5 days of diwali the rupee hitting the skids against the dollar has caused gold to go up against the rupee, making it unaffordable and out of reach for indian buyers. so the lack of physical demand has made for a lackluster gold market.its certainly not a time to bet the farm . in 03 one of my neighbors mortgaged his house and took the money and bought gold in the low 400s. this could turn out to be like that, but i can see many forces that could weigh on gold. eg what will happen if the jig is up on bonds.? that is a major event! i can see the synthetic short position in the dollar causing the dollar to run. putting pressure on gold. for me these are murky waters. but all the while the backdrop for the pms gets brighter and brighter. its just what happens between now and then
dharma
For me this is and has been major "basing " action where picking THE low or trying to will be an exercise in futility, IMO many miners have bottomed and some have bottomed in recent weeks/days - I pointed our NEM a few weeks ago in a possible wave 5 of C of a huge 2 or B (looks done IMO), PAAS today reached the lowest point(13.95 low) since its 2016 top and may also be ending a wave 5 of C, SILJ made a similar low recently as well. I am be wrong but I view this as likely being the 9th inning before a big rally begins, so I am holding an unleveraged 50% long position in what I view as quality select issues. as always DYODD
Senor
