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bottoming action for the start of a big rally


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#601 Russ

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Posted 14 November 2018 - 06:31 PM

Junior gold stocks and silver both have charts that give the impression of a double bottom test of support from last September and my oscillator was pointing right at the current low, I thought at first it was going to be around the 20-22 of November but this chart is convincing that the correct time is now for the low, it is not a coincidence that this chart and others bounced right on the signal line, so this argues against Stu and others wave count, time will tell. Markets try to make most people wrong, then the short covering drives it higher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



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#602 dharma

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Posted 15 November 2018 - 01:47 PM

SOME  follow through today. 

dsi got to 7 yesterday indicative of lopsided market

sinclair came out w/interesting commentary today

jsmneset.com   he was instrumental in getting me started as a ttader

his dad bert seligman was partners w/jesse livermore.

dharma



#603 dharma

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Posted 16 November 2018 - 04:03 PM

i believe this cot report as of tuesday is very bullish for gold, silver and bearish for the dollar

http://news.goldseek.../1542399970.php

the large specs into tuesdays lows sold their longs and put on a significant #of shorts the commercials took the other side of that bet and are now net long gold and silver as the bait is short each

the dollar remains lopsided short in the commercials hands

more upside action and i will finally venture into a new thread

hadik has a more bullish tone as well

if we continue to decline in the broad market , does the fed blink? and take a softer stance on interest rates???

see that mountain of debt, it now costs more in interest than the entire defense budget!

dharma

dusting off my bull hat, not putting it on yet. 

that 7dsi reading could have marked the low, for gold/miners/silver


Edited by dharma, 16 November 2018 - 04:07 PM.


#604 Russ

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 03:29 PM

here's some gospel... Socrates, The Metals for the Benchmark, By: Marty Armstrong, Wednesday, September 12, 2018

 

Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of 8/27 at 121570 for 2 weeks. We have penetrated last week's low of 119510 reaching so far this week 119270. Normally, we would expect a high or low to form at this time. When we get consolidation (sideways movement), this confirm that the market is NOT yet ready to change course and it is preparing for a sift. The next target will come in December on the Benchmarks.

A key numbers to watch in Gold will be 1229 and 1211. We really have to exceed 1229 to even get a sustainable bounce into October/November. We need a weekly closing ABOVE 1211 to avoid a further decline ahead.

 

Now, when we turn to silver, here we did make a new low on the Benchmark target last week. This now means that silver has broken the 2017 low making 2018 a down year so far. The fact that we have produced a low on the Benchmark infers that the market is still bearish. This seems to make sense if we are going to witness a dollar rally which breaks the back of the monetary system BEFORE a bull market can materialize.

The critical support remains at the Major Weekly Bearish Reversal lying at 1372. We do have an addition Weekly Bearish at 1402. We are trading at the time of this post at 1426. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands well above the market at 1535. Without a closing above that level on a weekly closing basis, then further new lows lie ahead. A month end closing below 1420 will also signal we may yet break the 2015 low of 1362.   Yellow line on the chart below is about the level gold must get above to remain bullish according to the MA info above.... 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#605 dougie

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 07:22 PM

sounds like he is hedging his bets more than usual



#606 Russ

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Posted 18 November 2018 - 10:02 PM

sounds like he is hedging his bets more than usual

If you know about Armstrong' stuff you know that he did not write that report, his artificial intelligence computer Socrates wrote it.  What I took out of the report is that because silver broke the previous low that does not bode well for gold and silver down the road so breaking the 1000 dollar level is still on once the dollar goes into rocket mode. I am not sure about that, but I know that Armstrong and his computer are usually right.


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#607 dougie

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 01:19 AM

nothing would surprise. What happens to dollars when saudia dollar recycling scheme comes to an end or is weakened?



#608 Russ

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 01:51 AM

nothing would surprise. What happens to dollars when saudia dollar recycling scheme comes to an end or is weakened?

the emerging international debt crisis is much bigger than saudi i think is armstrong's view and the usa still being the core economy of the world will be last to fall is his argument which he says has historic precedent.  " The dollar-haters have not given up. They are out there beating their drums that the dollar rally cannot be sustain be they just the currency traders or the gold and cryptocurrency players. What is most interesting is that even Bitcoin took a nose dive of Friday. It has held up better than gold, but a break of the first Weekly Bearish Reversal there at 582385 will be a sign that the entire spectrum is giving way. What people seem to overlook is that this not just about currency. I have warned that Turkey would be the first in the Emerging Market Crisis to go. There were many banks who rushed in to buy their paper a month ago at 20%. They took the position that countries really do not default. What they failed to grasp was the degree to which Turkey was entering the complete collapse in CONFIDENCE within its own borders that results in hyperinflation.

Then we have those who dismiss the debt crisis in China and Japan saying they owe the money to themselves. That is the standard sales-pitch governments have used all along to create national debts. It really DOES MATTER regardless of who is buying the debt. Even a wholly floated domestic debt default destroys an economy because money is still changing hands. The borrower gain and the lenders lose. This under today's situation wipes out the retired and pension funds. That leads to civil unrest so it really does not matter who they owe the money to. If it is offshore, that has historically led to war, but domestic defaults leads to civil unrest.

 

When we run our correlations, it just seems that volatility will be on the rise starting next wee. The interesting aspect is that even Bitcoin is starting to correlate with everything else and seems to be in a declining position on the opposite side of the dollar as we find in gold and the currencies. This is tending to impress the fact that we are looking at a dollar rally that is far broader than most would suspect, including Donald Trump."

 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#609 dharma

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Posted 20 November 2018 - 11:32 AM

marty is not always right 

i have a bullish bent towards gold, but i dont see enough to get me to commit more money at this time. i am not going to add when i dont see evidence in the market that gold deserves more of a commitment.  it doesnt do much it seems like every day. the miners have firmed a hair. i see influential money managers like ray dalio make statements on golds history and behalf  but if you go to coin dealers websites they will pay you less than spot for krugerrands for example. so it tells me there is not much demand. of course we can build to a bullish atmosphere, i just dont see it ............yet.  there are so many spinning plates. 

dharma



#610 dougie

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Posted 20 November 2018 - 01:19 PM

what gdx does in here will tell us a lot imo