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Momentum flagging, "Fake Tariff War" may deliver a fatal blow


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 06:15 PM

S&P Futures momentum has been flagging for a few hours but the  bulls have been quite resilient and took it in stride. 

However, the announcement of more "fake tariffs" in another installment of this phony tariff war could deliver serious blows to the bulls.

 

Still, this could be a mere pullback unless the daily 50ma is taken out and SPX 2740/45 support broken.

 

Just did a quick S&P Futures hourly chart with ST Chande Momentum oscillator to see how it looks:

 

spf_h.jpg
https://ibb.co/n5KB6o



#2 fib_1618

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 07:27 PM

However, the announcement of more "fake tariffs" in another installment of this phony tariff war could deliver serious blows to the bulls.

 

Nobody I read said that the tariffs were "fake"...only that we have no war.

 

BTW...several steel and aluminum plants are now hiring again in Pennsylvania...it's working.

 

And the more pressure we put on those who have been screwing us for over 40 years, the more they're going to squeal.

 

All they have to do is give us parity and *poof* this too will go away and there will be true equality.

 

This is what is called "pushing back" against globalism....they need us more than we need them.

 

Fib


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#3 Data

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 12:01 AM

I think Trump is setting it up for the election.  Either he gains a victory before the midterm election with a trade deal, or it gets amped up after the election.  His next step is to go to tariffs on a cumulative 50 billion dollars in goods.  It may be September or October before the addition 16 billion dollars is hit with tariffs.



#4 diogenes227

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 01:05 AM

Those who do not know history are condemned to repeat it.

 

Those who know history are condemned to stand by while those who don't repeat it.

 

SMOOT-HAWLEY TARIFF


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 Venatici

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 01:29 AM

Talking about spitting on the hand that feeds.

Now its cool to use words like "back" and "again", and of course its super cool to be against globalism.

But forgetting that its precisely because of globalism and free trade that we enjoy the progress and economic wealth that we have now.

Lets not pretend that "yesterdays" were better.

We now enjoy better quality of life and have more progress than any of our previous generations could.

Lets look forward to improve our future not back.

 

 

 

Nobody I read said that the tariffs were "fake"...only that we have no war.

 

BTW...several steel and aluminum plants are now hiring again in Pennsylvania...it's working.

 

And the more pressure we put on those who have been screwing us for over 40 years, the more they're going to squeal.

 

All they have to do is give us parity and *poof* this too will go away and there will be true equality.

 

This is what is called "pushing back" against globalism....they need us more than we need them.

 

Fib

 



#6 AChartist

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:57 AM

Letter to the President.

 

what they dont know is reciprocity is the revenue step to eliminate illegal tax on labor

 

Dear Sir, I'm afraid the economy is failing fast primarily because we failed to close the irs in time, failed to pay reparations to the generations of obama cloward-pivon depopulation tax labor.

To fake GDP Pre election they changed alogrithms to increase credit scores and dropped credit standards to sell new cars to anyone pulling several years of future demand forward into 2015-2016,

stalling out present demand. I see section 8 housing areas around here filled with new Cadillacs in the drive. "They" may have near zero interest rates from their deepstate federal reserve

racketeering to run up real estate prices and urban rents, but labor is still paying 20%+ retail interest rates. My recommendation is immediately close irs tax on labor plus several years of irs rebates to

the low income labor. The obama hyperinflation compunded now makes $200k low income after 75% aggregate taxation and most importantly annual compounding stealth hyperinflation tax such as property tax

and all others, check on collapsed SS

purchasing power for real american labor fodder caught in the communist cloward pivon collapse, check on compounding annual medicare rates and rents and property taxation, and, and, and.
This will take something bold and revolutionary such as returning to the rule of Law, that use to known as the Constitution.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:21 AM

I absolutely agree with FIB et al that many countries, especially CHINA, took advantage of lax and loose regulations and laws to dump stuff on the US market. I also agree that many previous Presidents were too darn cowardly and/or careless in not taking drastic action to rectify this but Trump has decided he will go after these countries, a commendable act. 

 

However, President Trump is going about this the wrong way and risks serious damage to the US & global economy, and the roaring US financial markets. 

 

TRADE WARS can be contagious and can spread rapidly across the world, with those who started it losing control and unable to stop it. There is immense confidence and strength in the US economy & markets; this must be nurtured rather than squandered in a useless and ill-advised global trade war. 

 

There is still time for President Trump do this the right way and achieve very good results. The markets and economy are quite strong and can still move forward even if there is targeted, useful, and well-organized Trade negotiations that can come to a mutually beneficial agreement without wrecking the US and global economy.. I think Trump & his advisers will recognize this and pull-back from the current modus opersndi.



#8 fib_1618

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:21 AM

There is still time for President Trump do this the right way and achieve very good results. The markets and economy are quite strong and can still move forward even if there is targeted, useful, and well-organized Trade negotiations that can come to a mutually beneficial agreement without wrecking the US and global economy.. I think Trump & his advisers will recognize this and pull-back from the current modus opersndi.

 

It seems you may not quite understand what's going on...this IS the negotiations. Trade IS mutually beneficial when parity is reached where one country is not given a large advantage over the other. This can and should be done now because of a stable economy...from a position of strength. Trade wars develop during times when economies are weak and getting weaker as desperation sets in. You don't cut out a cancerous tumor by picking at it...you go in and slice it out completely so that the least amount of damage is done. When the American people begin to see jobs are once again being created in sectors we were told by past administrations would "never recover...get used to it", will the curtain be finally lifted on those whose goal is to take your freedoms and liberties away in the name of being part of a global community. Socialism does not work...free and equitable trade between nations works as sovereign independence flourishes. It's just like in business...those who offer what customers demand stay around...those who don't close their doors. You can't save them all, and to have everyone sell the same thing takes away your freedom of choice, no less, competition to push new technology forward toward a better life without being put into a position of being indebted to someone else. Patience...you're watching a business man at work here and not a lawyer, and the push back from global elitist and their mouthpieces are strong but defeatable.


Edited by fib_1618, 11 July 2018 - 07:41 AM.

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#9 Data

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:06 AM

Pence wants to run for president in 2024.  His main demand for NAFTA was to have it expire in mid 2023.  He comes from Indiana where many of the auto plants were located.



#10 fib_1618

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:29 AM

Pence wants to run for president in 2024.  His main demand for NAFTA was to have it expire in mid 2023.  He comes from Indiana where many of the auto plants were located.

 

Pence will have a tough time going against Ivanka...and with the latest tariffs, NAFTA (and CAFTA) is already done and buried.

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 11 July 2018 - 10:02 AM.

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