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"9-year stock market 'party' may not be over, but itís getting pretty late"


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:43 PM

Normally, I don't wait for crashes or melt-ups, and this is so now, even as the market shudders under a mounting weight of essentially non-market problems. 

This topping action can take weeks or months but it's now on, a work in progress, with spikes up & down, but the next big move (more than 300 S&P points) will be down. 

 

I like this BARRON's article:

 

A Real Dark Night of the Soul

It may be darkest before the dawn, but with the world inching closer and closer to an all-out trade war between the world's two biggest economies, it's starting to feel more like "a real dark night of the soul [where] it is always three o'clock in the morning," as F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote in one of his more pessimistic essays.

Fitzgerald, whose life is in many ways a study in tragedy, certainly knew a thing or two about hopeless situations, even as his eloquence secured his place among literary greats. Of course, many of his problems were self-manufactured, stemming from his alcoholism or jealousy. Yet the same could be said of the market's issues. Today's correction seems like an inevitable move downward as the reality of tariffs–which investors tried to ignore–came home to roost; and tariffs themselves are the result of tough talk that has escalated into potentially crippling levies on billions of dollars worth of goods at a time when the economy was otherwise humming along nicely.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 219.21 points, or 0.88%, to 24,700.4, while the S&P 500lost 19.82 points, or 0.71%, to 2774.02, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 42.59 points, or 0.55%, to 7716.61.

While earnings and economic data were able to hold off pessimism for a while, the White House's decision to double down on even more punishing tariffs, and China's angered response, sent investors scurrying for cover.

"Trump’s escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is going to trigger a chain reaction of negative events around the world," writes Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group. He warns that investors will have to endure months of posturing that will lead to market turmoil. "Trump’s trade war is a masterclass in self-harm for the U.S. and global economy.”

Still, SunTrust's Advisory Services' Keith Lerner writes that it's not time to go into panic mode just yet: He thinks that the market remains in a broad trading range where it's "normal for stocks to trade in a choppy fashion during midterm election years as rhetoric and noise out of Washington tends to heat up."

 

He acknowledges that the backdrop is becoming "more challenging," but he believes that even with this bumpiness, the U.S. market will continue to outperform international markets.  He writes that "dividend strategies should hold up relatively well. Similarly, high-quality fixed income and alternative strategies should help smooth out the ride."

Second-quarter-earnings season, which begins in earnest later this week, could also offer a bit of a respite, but good numbers can only do so much. CFRA's Sam Stovall estimates that it will be the 26th straight quarter in which actual earnings per share blow past end-of-quarter estimates. "Yet even though investors are largely discounting the effects of what may become a global trade war, this possibility will likely lead to elevated volatility, if not a renewed threat to the market’s near-term attempt to set a new all-time high."

Leuthold Chief Investment Officer Doug Ramsey puts it more bluntly: "The nine-year stock market 'party' may not yet be over, but it’s getting pretty late."

Of course, Fitzgerald was no stranger to a good party (and their mythologies). "I entertained on a cruising trip that was so much fun I had to sink my yacht to make the guests go home," he famously noted. A trade war might make for a good iceberg.

https://www.barrons....toll-1531342057



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:45 PM

DP Alert: Dow Squeaks a PMO BUY Signal - ST Indicators Very Overbought Erin Swenlin | July 11, 2018 at 05:45 PM I mentioned in yesterday's blog that I was expecting the PMO BUY signals to come in on the Dow and NDX. Well, NDX missed the positive crossover by less than a tenth of a point, but I suspect it'll come in tomorrow barring a particularly bad day of selling. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) remain extremely overbought, but appear to be topping. I'm expecting some sideways consolidation or perhaps a pullback. Looking at the Dow chart, we can see that the BUY signal did trigger, but the margin is very thin between the PMO and its signal line. Should we... Continue Reading

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 05:46 PM

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 11, 2018 Tim Ord | July 11, 2018 at 01:38 PM SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.37. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 7/6/18 at 22.61 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX on 6/29/18 at 2718.37 SPY appears to be breaking above the February, March and June highs and heading for the gap levels that formed back in January.  The first half of July is bullish seasonality wise and market can push higher short term. We are looking for signs that market may stall short term but we don’t have evidence to step out of our position.  A pattern that could be forming here is a “Three Drives to Top” and... Continue Reading

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:02 PM

The BULLISH case: Sounds pretty convincing!

 

"I’m not claiming the trade war doesn’t matter to the economy and the stock market. Without a doubt this is a negative event and will hurt businesses and consumers alike. The stock market hates barriers to trade because they create inefficiencies and only enrich the government. But the thing to remember is stocks don’t need to fall for something to get priced in. Going sideways is often enough to compensate for a headwind.

The market was on fire last year and Trump’s tax cuts added fuel to the fire. In fact the Fed is worried about the economy overheating. But what has the stock market done while the economy continued ramping up this year? A lot of nothing. We got hit by waves of rate hike fears, rising interest rates, Trump’s trade war, and the icing on the cake is a growing investigation into the White House. Take these things away and without a doubt the stock market would be significantly higher. If we are lower than where we would have been otherwise, then these negative headlines are actually priced in even though we haven’t crashed.

Back to the present, not only did the U.S. stock market ignore Friday’s escalation, it’s been ignoring the trade war for months. Overnight futures would dip on a negative headline. But the thing to remember is overnight futures are an extremely thin market and easily influenced by a small number of players. As soon as the regular market opened and real volumes returned, prices rallied from their opening lows. No doubt something similar will happen Tuesday or Wednesday. If this market was going to crash on trade war headlines, it would have happened months ago. If it didn’t happen then, it’s not going to happen now. Prices could slip a little further over the next couple of days, but these are buyable dips and no one should be bailing out “before things get worse”.

Before anyone accuses me of being a perma-bull, I am most definitely not. I’m an opportunist and personally I wish the market would crash so that I could make even more money riding these waves down and back up again. Unfortunately this market keeps telling us it doesn’t want to selloff. I’ve been doing this too long to argue with a strong market and am more than happy to play along. Without a doubt the latest round of trade war headlines could trigger further near-term weakness (and I would love it if it did), but this market has told us time and time again it simply isn’t interested in these headlines. I would be surprised if we dip much lower than 2,650 and no doubt we will hear bears howling in pain again when prices bounce back and they claim the market is fixed. There is nothing fixed about this market and everything makes perfect sense if you know what to pay attention to. If this market was going to crash on trade war headlines, it would have happened months ago. Instead any near-term weakness is simply another dip-buying opportunity."

 

 

 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:32 AM

Salivating at the prospect of another great shorting opportunity! Be patient!

 

Drooling_Dog.jpg



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:34 AM

more relevant:

 

Bear_drooling.jpg



#7 da_cheif

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:33 AM

Normally, I don't wait for crashes or melt-ups, and this is so now, even as the market shudders under a mounting weight of essentially non-market problems. 

This topping action can take weeks or months but it's now on, a work in progress, with spikes up & down, but the next big move (more than 300 S&P points) will be down. 

 

I like this BARRON's article:

 

A Real Dark Night of the Soul

It may be darkest before the dawn, but with the world inching closer and closer to an all-out trade war between the world's two biggest economies, it's starting to feel more like "a real dark night of the soul [where] it is always three o'clock in the morning," as F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote in one of his more pessimistic essays.

Fitzgerald, whose life is in many ways a study in tragedy, certainly knew a thing or two about hopeless situations, even as his eloquence secured his place among literary greats. Of course, many of his problems were self-manufactured, stemming from his alcoholism or jealousy. Yet the same could be said of the market's issues. Today's correction seems like an inevitable move downward as the reality of tariffs–which investors tried to ignore–came home to roost; and tariffs themselves are the result of tough talk that has escalated into potentially crippling levies on billions of dollars worth of goods at a time when the economy was otherwise humming along nicely.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 219.21 points, or 0.88%, to 24,700.4, while the S&P 500lost 19.82 points, or 0.71%, to 2774.02, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 42.59 points, or 0.55%, to 7716.61.

While earnings and economic data were able to hold off pessimism for a while, the White House's decision to double down on even more punishing tariffs, and China's angered response, sent investors scurrying for cover.

"Trump’s escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is going to trigger a chain reaction of negative events around the world," writes Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group. He warns that investors will have to endure months of posturing that will lead to market turmoil. "Trump’s trade war is a masterclass in self-harm for the U.S. and global economy.”

Still, SunTrust's Advisory Services' Keith Lerner writes that it's not time to go into panic mode just yet: He thinks that the market remains in a broad trading range where it's "normal for stocks to trade in a choppy fashion during midterm election years as rhetoric and noise out of Washington tends to heat up."

 

He acknowledges that the backdrop is becoming "more challenging," but he believes that even with this bumpiness, the U.S. market will continue to outperform international markets.  He writes that "dividend strategies should hold up relatively well. Similarly, high-quality fixed income and alternative strategies should help smooth out the ride."

Second-quarter-earnings season, which begins in earnest later this week, could also offer a bit of a respite, but good numbers can only do so much. CFRA's Sam Stovall estimates that it will be the 26th straight quarter in which actual earnings per share blow past end-of-quarter estimates. "Yet even though investors are largely discounting the effects of what may become a global trade war, this possibility will likely lead to elevated volatility, if not a renewed threat to the market’s near-term attempt to set a new all-time high."

Leuthold Chief Investment Officer Doug Ramsey puts it more bluntly: "The nine-year stock market 'party' may not yet be over, but it’s getting pretty late."

Of course, Fitzgerald was no stranger to a good party (and their mythologies). "I entertained on a cruising trip that was so much fun I had to sink my yacht to make the guests go home," he famously noted. A trade war might make for a good iceberg.

https://www.barrons....toll-1531342057

party?    u were invited.....when will you show up?     snort



#8 Data

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:36 PM

It's getting late on this markup.  Had 95 percent buys last week. It will probably be the opposite at the close if things stand.



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:38 PM

China has backed down, US has won the trade war,  TO DAH MOON! 

 

 

Who's buying that? and who's selling it? 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:40 PM

The QQQ options trading so far today has been really intense.

 

VXN still has room on the downside, as is VIX. 

 

Am totally absorbed in this, ES daytrading has to take a backseat.