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SPX since 1974


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#1 tsharp

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:29 PM

Here's a chart I prepared today of the SPX weekly in log-scale with my momentum indicator beneath.

 

Note how the low in 1982 established the LT trend line all the way to the top in 2000... a new LT trend line is established, and it will take a crossing of the line to the downside to mark the end of this phase of the bull market that re-started in 2009... at this time, on a percentage basis, Wave-5 is the shortest of the impulsive legs, so it may extend beyond my target of ~3600... twt.

 

SP00_W_7.12.18-_LT.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/q7y4tsluh/



#2 tsharp

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 05:52 PM

Here's a chart I prepared today of the SPX weekly in log-scale with my momentum indicator beneath.

 

Note how the low in 1982 established the LT trend line all the way to the top in 2000... a new LT trend line is established, and it will take a crossing of the line to the downside to mark the end of this phase of the bull market that re-started in 2009... at this time, on a percentage basis, Wave-5 is the shortest of the impulsive legs, so it may extend beyond my target of ~3600... twt.

 

SP00_W_7.12.18-_LT.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/q7y4tsluh/

 

When I made my forecast on 4.9.16 for the SPX to peak in a Wave-5 at ~3600, it was based only on the the Fibonacci extension of the wave from the Wave-4 bottom to the place where the wave-iii peaked.

 

In looking at the SPX since 1974, it becomes clear that under normal fractal relationships, where in an impulsive five-wave sequence, the third wave CANNOT be the shortest,  and it is not, but neither does it necessarily have to be the longest.

 

In typical impulsive moves, wave-1 and wave-5 would be about equal in length, with wave-3 being the longest.

 

In the chart above, we can see that in this great bull market run in the US financial markets, using the S&P 500 for a proxy, that the bull market began in 1974 at a low of ~61 up to ~338 in 1987 for an approximate 5.5X over thirteen years.

 

Wave-2 was a very sharp correction that ran from the week of 8.24.87 - to the week of 10.19.87, and corrected the SPX to the tune of 36% over two months, leaving the SPX at ~216.

 

Wave-3 picked up from there and ran from 1987 - 2000, taking the SPX from ~216 - ~1530 for an approximate 7.06X over thirteen years.

 

Wave-4 began the week of 8.28.2000 from a truncated fifth wave high of 1530 (an ending diagonal triangle) and lasted through the week of 3.2.2009 (nearly nine years) and corrected the market by about 56% to the low of ~667.

 

This takes us to the wave in which we are now operating, Wave-5.  The start date of this leg of the bull market is the week of 3.2.2009, and if the Wave-1 = Wave-5 scenario plays out it would last some thirteen years, taking it out to 2022 and to a price level of ~3660.

 

If Wave-5 extends, meaning it becomes the longest of the impulsive waves, the price would need to exceed ~4700.

 

To wrap this up, note how the up-trend-line (UTL) on the momentum indicator line marked the extent of the previous two legs of the bull market from the 1982 low through the topping process in 2000.

 

The new UTL in this last leg up has two touches already and marks this phase of the new bull market.  This leg of the bull market continues until that second UTL is broken, perhaps out in 2022, or sometime sooner, with a lower price target of ~3600 and a higher potential price in excess of ~4700... twt.



#3 CLK

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:03 PM

Can you run a long term count on Bitcoin ?  I think 5 of primary 1 ended in 2014, not sure about structure after that

thought maybe this was 2 of 3 from the Dec. top.

 

 

https://charts.bitco...hart/price#5mgw



#4 tsharp

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Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:13 PM

Can you run a long term count on Bitcoin ?  I think 5 of primary 1 ended in 2014, not sure about structure after that

thought maybe this was 2 of 3 from the Dec. top.

 

 

https://charts.bitco...hart/price#5mgw

 

From my blog the week of 6.11.18... looking for an IT bounce at the $4K-$6K range.

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/h8r58sprb/  

 

BIT_W_6.5.18.jpg



#5 CLK

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 05:51 AM

Ok, thanks. Just based on past bear markets I had 1300 to 3000 target area, will wait to see if 4k holds or not.

If this is 2 of 3, looking for 100k plus, should be a couple years, I want bitcoin as cheap as I can get it, tired of stop outs.



#6 fib_1618

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 10:12 AM

More on Bitcoin, daily time frame: http://tinyurl.com/yb4kc9vs

 

Fib


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#7 NAV

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 10:31 AM

Ok, thanks. Just based on past bear markets I had 1300 to 3000 target area, will wait to see if 4k holds or not.

If this is 2 of 3, looking for 100k plus, should be a couple years, I want bitcoin as cheap as I can get it, tired of stop outs.

 

100k ? - Dream on. Odds are it will go to zero and get replaced by something better. Even if it survives, 100k may not come in your lifetime. It will be like Nikkei. It's been 20 years now, since it topped out, and yet ways to go before it takes out it's all time highs.


Edited by NAV, 13 July 2018 - 10:32 AM.

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https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#8 tsharp

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 10:43 AM

Ok, thanks. Just based on past bear markets I had 1300 to 3000 target area, will wait to see if 4k holds or not.

If this is 2 of 3, looking for 100k plus, should be a couple years, I want bitcoin as cheap as I can get it, tired of stop outs.

 

In the article I wrote about BTC on my blog, I take the position that the likely end path for BTC is a 10-20 year recovery, if at all (think GE).  in the 80s, gold went parabolic... in the 80s the DXY went parabolic... in the 90s the N225 did so, and has still not recovered, though Asia is not starting their respective bull markets... in 2000 both the NDX and SOX went parabolic... GE went parabolic... BTC went parabolic. 

 

And when I wrote above regarding $4K-$6K, that was for an IT bounce... the LT trend is down, and it will likely go lower over the next decade or two... if it survives. 



#9 CLK

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 11:35 AM

 

Ok, thanks. Just based on past bear markets I had 1300 to 3000 target area, will wait to see if 4k holds or not.

If this is 2 of 3, looking for 100k plus, should be a couple years, I want bitcoin as cheap as I can get it, tired of stop outs.

 

100k ? - Dream on. Odds are it will go to zero and get replaced by something better. Even if it survives, 100k may not come in your lifetime. It will be like Nikkei. It's been 20 years now, since it topped out, and yet ways to go before it takes out it's all time highs.

 

 

 

I'm not going to try and pick a lifetime top on anything, especially on something with a 10 year track record, bear markets in crypto are over

in max 2 years. With the futures backing bitcoin, I don't think they let it just go away. The move to 20k from 1000 was nothing new or spectacular, bitcoin has been doing this all along percentage wise. I agree the ability to scale is not there yet in crypto, but bitcoin I think will be around as a store of wealth and purchasing power for the lesser coins.



#10 LMF

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 11:41 AM

Broken parabolics are not serious risks on the upside.....and Bitcoin has been measured arguably as the worst parabolic ever.   Broken parabolics are like gold in 1980 and Nasdaq in 2000. Even WTIC in 2008 qualifies.