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Black Friday, for bears or bulls? Choppy, but up


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 05:30 AM

Strong rally off the recent swing lows, choppy, but the bias is definitely up, as a Summer Black Friday is upon us.

 

My VXX and VIX indicators have still not turned into a BUY (SPX sell) but they are approaching that condition. 

 

Still, the Bulls have the ball and can run with it, all the way to the record highs. 

 

My personal opinion is this is a massive top being formed with a predominantly bear market in late July to September, a brief rally, then down again into October, and then an end of year rally. But, all that is some time away, let's focus on now. 

 

I am still partly short, had  a hard time trying to get fills yesterday but I take what I get, and look forward to add more shorts on this fizzling, bubbling, terminating rally. 

 

Black-Friday-shopping-survival.jpg



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 11:12 AM

Apparently, the latest rally, during the past few minutes, is the "Special Counsel Mueller" rally !

 

Very strong rally could take this past SPX 2820 today. 

 

A break below SPX 2788 will be bearish



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:03 PM

While running down the clock on another slow Friday afternoon..... catching up on reading:

 

The Yield Curve Isn’t Predicting an Imminent Market Collapse. Watch These Indicators Instead.

When it comes to the curve, the 10-year and one-year yield spread might work better, claims Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners, since it has had fewer false positives than the 2s-10s. 

Other metrics can be just as valuable as the curve. A shrinking of the M1 money supply—cash in circulation, readily available deposits, and other liquid forms of cash—also tends to occur about one year ahead of a downturn, Darda explains. M1 growth has been slowing this year but still remains positive. Housing starts tend to peak two or more years ahead of downturns. There, too, there's no sign of recession as the average level of housing starts in 2018 is about 9% above the 2017 average, suggesting it's still on a path to the next peak, according to Darda. "2019 will feature an ongoing expansion of the business cycle, but at a slower pace than 2018," Darda explains. "Keeping a close read on the key leading indicators is the key to staying in front of the rest of this cycle, however long it may last." 

https://www.barrons....tead-1531425245



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:05 PM

Really? With SPX at 2800? 

The stock market is a day away from setting a bearish record

 

MW-GM510_spx_co_20180713135301_NS.jpg?uu

https://www.marketwa...cord-2018-06-28



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:07 PM

A crash path?  With SPX less than 3 % from record highs? 

 

 

Will the S&P 500 continue to follow on a ‘crash path’?

MW-GM327_simon2_20180711124303_NS.png?uu

https://www.marketwa...path-2018-07-13



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:08 PM

But HULBERT says no way!
 

This high-flying index is signaling that the stock market and the U.S. economy are just fine

https://www.marketwa...fine-2018-07-13



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:10 PM

Bulls have more muscle.... 

 

 

This stock market has bigger muscle than you might think

https://www.marketwa...ocks-2018-07-13



#8 12SPX

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:16 PM

One thing for sure the market is as slow as this Isner/Anderson match, over 6:00 hours now in the 20's each for the fifth set!!! 



#9 LMF

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:40 PM

QQQ only needs a close 178.07 or higher today to flip the weekly trailing stop bullish.....that usually clears the way to run higher.



#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 01:42 PM

VIX is likely bottomed, meaning the market is near or at a top..................