Member
Posted 16 July 2018 - 09:30 PM
In fact, this could quickly become an IT sell if SPX closes below 2780 on a daily basis.
The real test of this market will be the resilience or lack of it in the NASDAQ and RUT.
A daily close above 2814 invalidates the sell and lead all the way to the record SPX high.
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 08:20 AM
The really important question about the really important data item in the markets: will VIX rise above 17 ?
If it does not then the rally will resume.
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 08:52 AM
At this juncture, with the move upward not having the "feel" of a third wave AND the symmetry not a proportionate between the wave-ii and wave-iv, here's a possibility to consider... I have wave-ii as a runner, lasting for some 29-weeks.
By my count, wave-ii was a runner that lasted some 29-weeks, if wave-iv was similar in time, that would push it out to mid-August with a likely low of ~2600 (2593-2607) or ~2475 (2459-2482)... I would go with the former range....
I'm not suggesting this scenario will play out, but that it is within the realm of possibility... twt.
Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/ty8sjql3d/
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 09:00 AM
On a macro level, I agree with the major theme in your forecast:
SPX 2500 before SPX 3000
Markets will grind lower until November.
SPX can actually make new highs - but way below SPX 3000 - and still not invalidate the above
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 11:17 AM
At this juncture, with the move upward not having the "feel" of a third wave AND the symmetry not a proportionate between the wave-ii and wave-iv, here's a possibility to consider... I have wave-ii as a runner, lasting for some 29-weeks.
By my count, wave-ii was a runner that lasted some 29-weeks, if wave-iv was similar in time, that would push it out to mid-August with a likely low of ~2600 (2593-2607) or ~2475 (2459-2482)... I would go with the former range....
I'm not suggesting this scenario will play out, but that it is within the realm of possibility... twt.
Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/ty8sjql3d/
This is not a done deal yet... yesterday I called out a wave-iv low of ~2789 or ~2777... thus far, it appears ~2789 was elected (2789.75)... watching.
Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/6f6p99es9/
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 12:02 PM
The POWELL rally could close above SPX 2814, invalidating this ST SELL.
I don't think so, but "we shall see"
Two fantastic LONG ES day trades this morning
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 12:27 PM
At this juncture, with the move upward not having the "feel" of a third wave AND the symmetry not a proportionate between the wave-ii and wave-iv, here's a possibility to consider... I have wave-ii as a runner, lasting for some 29-weeks.
By my count, wave-ii was a runner that lasted some 29-weeks, if wave-iv was similar in time, that would push it out to mid-August with a likely low of ~2600 (2593-2607) or ~2475 (2459-2482)... I would go with the former range....
I'm not suggesting this scenario will play out, but that it is within the realm of possibility... twt.
Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/ty8sjql3d/
This is not a done deal yet... yesterday I called out a wave-iv low of ~2789 or ~2777... thus far, it appears ~2789 was elected (2789.75)... watching.
Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/6f6p99es9/
At this point, it seems 2840s is the most likely path... time will tell.
Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/ylohwlosp/
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 12:54 PM
Could not help it:
Opened a small VXX LONG position @ 30.76
Member
Member
Posted 17 July 2018 - 12:57 PM
Speaking of buybacks and people who are actively trying to push companies in the direction of eschewing myopia in favor of a long-term vision, you might recall that back in January, BlackRock's Larry Fink used his annual letter to effectively chide management teams on this issue. To wit, from that letter:
Companies have begun to devote greater attention to issues of long-term sustainability, but despite increased rhetorical commitment they have continued to engage in buybacks at a furious pace. While we certainly support returning excess capital to shareholders, we believe companies must balance those practices with investment in future growth.
To prosper over time, every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society. Companies must benefit all of their stakeholders, including shareholders, employees, customers, and the communities in which they operate.
That was not well received in some circles, for obvious reasons, not the least of which is that it came across as something of a threat given how large BlackRock (BLK) is.
In the course of discussing buybacks over the weekend, I cited a recent JPMorgan note in which the bank's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou took an in-depth look at repatriation following the tax cuts on the way to explaining how buybacks likely helped prop up the market in Q2:
Based on the average divisor change of four US equity indices, a proxy for the share count, we estimate that the net equity withdrawal by US companies overall including both financial and non-financial companies tripled in Q2 ($150bn) vs. Q1 ($50bn).
As it happens, Panigirtzoglou revisits this in his latest note (dated Friday) and in light of my weekend post, I wanted to highlight a couple of excerpts for readers here. JPMorgan makes a critical distinction between "values" and "volumes". To wit:
Announced US buybacks look set to approach one trillion dollars this year if one annualizes the YTD pace, the highest on record. But in volume terms, at 4% of the capitalization of the S&P 500 index, this year’s announced US buyback pace is lower than the 6% record high pace seen in 2007 and lower than the 5% post Lehman peak seen in 2012.
