3 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my system there was an elevated risk of a turn yesterday and this Thursday the 19th.  The risk window yesterday apparently was just the back end of the Friday the 13th risk window.  The signal for this Thursday is half as strong as the one late last week, so it will be interesting to see if it amounts to much.  So far the big risk window just closed hasn't had the severe effect that I was expecting given the number of risk turns involved, but that's probability for you.  

 

If I squint my eyes looking into my cracked crystal ball, the Russell daily chart appears to be forming some sort of small double top.  This would certainly fit well with the nasty risk window just closed.  I guess the index's reaction to the smaller risk window this Thursday should clear this up.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

[bighouse1006]

Thanks for the update!

[Douglas]

The Friday the 13th - Monday the 16th risk window appears to have been a real dud which is really surprising given all the risk cycle turns inside this window.  Looking back at previous such grand failures, I noticed that the next market turn of significance often occurred at the next low in risk cycle turns after the spike in risk.  Taking a preliminary, quick, crude look forward, the next low appears to be on either the 25th or 26th of July.  The jury is still out on the small risk spike window tomorrow the 19th, but given the small number of risk cycle turns, I don't hold out much hope for it redeeming the good name of the system.  At best tomorrow is probably just a testament to the adage "if you can't predict correctly, at least predict often".

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

Looking at the futures this morning, it appears that I may have prematurely dished the small magnitude, Thursday the 19th risk window.  I heartily apologize to the little guy.  Maybe in these crazy days, it's not size that matters, but rather the quality of your risks.  Looking under its hood, the risks in this window are about half astro stuff which many associate with tin foil hats, smoke and mirrors.  Maybe this note is also premature since in earnings season, some happy news could again spin the idexes  back around before the close today.  I guess it will take the next few days to correctly tell the tale since whether little, big or bold, respect in this cruel game has to be earned.

 

Regards,

Douglas