It's so easy to do. You see your oscillators up in Sell territory. You know the market is "overdone" to the upside. Maybe you've even fallen for some fundamental Bearish argument.
It just looks like it is going down.
Well, let me tell you, the market looks like it's ready to go down a lot more than it's actually ready to go down. Go pull up your favorite oscillator and really look at how much the market rallies after it gets overbought on that indicator.
Now, obviously, when a market is making new highs, this is more important to remember than when it's range-bound or in a correction, but even so, be mindful.
I've got a lot of stuff overbought. I'm not going to entertain even VST shorts until things really turn and stuff crosses downright negative. In fact, despite a FL/FS Sell today, I suspect that we rally (maybe it gets right tomorrow...maybe not...). I'm looking at the ES 280400 area for a long.
Mark