45 replies to this topic

[LMF]

I"m spending more time on trading TQQQ these days.......mainly because SPX and DJIA and RUT arent strong enough IMO.  But going back thru all of the mid term election years sinice 1974, there has never been a mid term year where the Nasdaq or NDX did not touch the 200 day MA by the fall.  And that is exactly where QQQ is right now......no touches this year so far.  VIX and VXX say we're going higher on TQQQ right now and not lower......until perphaps later in the fall, but I can't tell the timing on that.  It's higher until it's not......and VIX, VXX should be able to telegraph the turn down when it gets going.  

[fib_1618]

The internals indicate that we will be challenging the all time highs in both the SPX and OEX fairly soon...likely that the Dow will join in after today's trading.

 

Fib

[CLK]

I"m spending more time on trading TQQQ these days.......mainly because SPX and DJIA and RUT arent strong enough IMO.  But going back thru all of the mid term election years sinice 1974, there has never been a mid term year where the Nasdaq or NDX did not touch the 200 day MA by the fall.  And that is exactly where QQQ is right now......no touches this year so far.  VIX and VXX say we're going higher on TQQQ right now and not lower......until perphaps later in the fall, but I can't tell the timing on that.  It's higher until it's not......and VIX, VXX should be able to telegraph the turn down when it gets going.  

 

 

This mid term election pattern....is that something you have traded on in the past or is it a pattern you just now noticed ?

The reason is if it's something you have recently studied and found then most likely it won't repeat this time, I had 4 volume

signals hit in a row, this last one failed and cost me.

[CLK]

I think tops are going to get a retest, 2800 hourly close then look for a 10 point bounce to attempt a short

or can immediately try 1/4 position, the rest on the bounce, otherwise there is no turn.

[CLK]

The internals indicate that we will be challenging the all time highs in both the SPX and OEX fairly soon...likely that the Dow will join in after today's trading.

 

Fib

 

 

NYAD is divergent with NYA, and the rest. Maybe later after more consolidation or sell off.

 

 

[LMF]

 

I"m spending more time on trading TQQQ these days.......mainly because SPX and DJIA and RUT arent strong enough IMO.  But going back thru all of the mid term election years sinice 1974, there has never been a mid term year where the Nasdaq or NDX did not touch the 200 day MA by the fall.  And that is exactly where QQQ is right now......no touches this year so far.  VIX and VXX say we're going higher on TQQQ right now and not lower......until perphaps later in the fall, but I can't tell the timing on that.  It's higher until it's not......and VIX, VXX should be able to telegraph the turn down when it gets going.  

 

 

This mid term election pattern....is that something you have traded on in the past or is it a pattern you just now noticed ?

The reason is if it's something you have recently studied and found then most likely it won't repeat this time, I had 4 volume

signals hit in a row, this last one failed and cost me.

 

I saw the research on the mid term effect for the first time earlier this year, but it was SPX, not NDX like I needed to support my trading.  So I had to dig up that data on my own.  NDX every month during the mid term year is crap (i.e, an up month during 50% of the mid term years or less)......until October which is an up month 82 percent of the time. All of this is just more ammo to allow me to be the best trend follower I can be.  When you see January like we did this year......get ready, it's going to give it all back and then some.  Over and over again, month after month it seems.  The other years with the November presidential election or no election are better performers than the mid term year based on SPX.....2017 with no election was a good example of that. 

[LMF]

1998 with the LTCM saga must be the poster child for mid-term years,,,,,the best of times alternating with the worst of times. 

[CLK]

 

 

I"m spending more time on trading TQQQ these days.......mainly because SPX and DJIA and RUT arent strong enough IMO.  But going back thru all of the mid term election years sinice 1974, there has never been a mid term year where the Nasdaq or NDX did not touch the 200 day MA by the fall.  And that is exactly where QQQ is right now......no touches this year so far.  VIX and VXX say we're going higher on TQQQ right now and not lower......until perphaps later in the fall, but I can't tell the timing on that.  It's higher until it's not......and VIX, VXX should be able to telegraph the turn down when it gets going.  

 

 

This mid term election pattern....is that something you have traded on in the past or is it a pattern you just now noticed ?

The reason is if it's something you have recently studied and found then most likely it won't repeat this time, I had 4 volume

signals hit in a row, this last one failed and cost me.

 

I saw the research on the mid term effect for the first time earlier this year, but it was SPX, not NDX like I needed to support my trading.  So I had to dig up that data on my own.  NDX every month during the mid term year is crap (i.e, an up month during 50% of the mid term years or less)......until October which is an up month 82 percent of the time. All of this is just more ammo to allow me to be the best trend follower I can be.  When you see January like we did this year......get ready, it's going to give it all back and then some.  Over and over again, month after month it seems.  The other years with the November presidential election or no election are better performers than the mid term year based on SPX.....2017 with no election was a good example of that. 

 

 

You might want to check into Mike Burk's work, a lot based on seasonality. I think he may be running  a subscription service for non delayed write ups, not sure though. Other than bearish Sept.-Oct. bullish Nov.- April I don't use seasonal much since I trade the hourly.

 

http://www.talkmarke...utor/Mike-Burk/

[CLK]

In the summary, he is calling for the week to close lower than last week, that's 20+ points from today's close, could

hit 2790 if right.

[fib_1618]

 

The internals indicate that we will be challenging the all time highs in both the SPX and OEX fairly soon...likely that the Dow will join in after today's trading.

 

Fib

 

 

NYAD is divergent with NYA, and the rest. Maybe later after more consolidation or sell off.

 

 

 

 

There is no pattern divergence at this time...check again.

 

Fib