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Elevated Risk of Turn Wednesday and Thursday the 25th & 26th


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 22 July 2018 - 04:18 PM

According to my trading system there is an elevated risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend in the middle of the week on Wednesday the 25th and Thursday the 26th of July. 

 

This risk window is based on several days of very few risk cycle turns following the very high peak in risk cycle turns a little more than a week ago which failed to call a turn.  For some strange reason a very low number of the risk cycle turns that I track following a peak seems to call turns about as well as a spike in the number of risk cycle turns.  It might be something like, hit them while they're not watching.  I don't understand it, but it seems to work. Something about not looking gift horses in the mouth I guess. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 23 July 2018 - 05:31 AM

I meant to mention that a low for the 18-24 week S&P accordion cycle (nominally 21 weeks) has been due for a while and runs out of runway this week.  The previous low was the week of 5 February.   The 25 June week low may have been the turn if the market marches north from here, but this week is still a possibility if the market tumbles a bit.  

 

Regards,

Douglas