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#1 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:54 AM

Conclusion
Last time, I said that despite the Bull Market condition and the Intermediate-term up trend, near term the market had trouble in the form of an Options Oscillator Sell and a VIX P/C Sell. The former is based upon big shifts in "opening only" options transactions and the latter is based upon a big drop in VIX Put Buying--I view the players in the VIX options (think on that; traders of derivatives of a derivative derived from derivatives!) as "smart money". Basically, it looks to me like retail traders are all "Bulled-up" while the smart money guys are betting on a higher VIX (greater volatility/more weakness). Added to that, a number of "swing" indicators were flashing Sells. As Bullish as I was and am, I have to think that we've got one of the better chances for a pullback that we've seen in weeks if not months. Again, I'm a buyer if we get much of a pullback at all, but today I'm Bearish. This is, typically, confounded just a bit by a lot of Bears in the Opinion Poll, which is at least a bit Bullish. I'm expecting that the Bulls will try to defend the market, but that the Bears will win today. We're already down in GLOBEX.


Mark S Young
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#2 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:55 AM

From last night's letter:

"Near term, however, we have an Options Oscillator Sell and a VIX P/C Sell. Now, our "Secret Hedge Fund" indicator is flashing an unconfirmed Sell, and the market is up against the daily Bollinger Band. TSP issued a Sell and additionally, NAAIM jumped back up to 95, which is troublesome for the market. There's at least a decent chance of a pullback in here, and it might be pretty good."


Mark S Young
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#3 dowdeva

dowdeva

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Posted 15 August 2018 - 11:29 AM

Hey, Mark,

 

What's that indicator of yours I like saying? Ted rate, correct?

 

Tia

 

~D

 

Edit: Great call in that newsletter of yours...


Edited by dowdeva, 15 August 2018 - 11:33 AM.


#4 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

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Posted 15 August 2018 - 04:21 PM

Do you mean the Financial Commercial Paper vs. Non-Financial Commercial Paper? That differential was reported today (for yesterday) to be 0.03%. Very benign.

 

M


Mark S Young
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