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Can orange become the new black swan?


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 06:05 PM

From the link:

 

 

I don’t ever trade the news but just taking in some market perspective one wonders if something is going to come along and blindside the complacency of this bull advance? Like the odd VIX spike today. Like AAPL gone crazy and possibly running out of buyers besides AAPL itself. Like some sector gone so frothy so fast it signals irrational exuberance has crossed over into insane exuberance (see the pot stocks in the post below).

 

Or...

 

MARKET PERSPECTIVE - Guilty, Guilty...GUILTY?


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 06:42 PM

Market has shown tremendous resilience and strength BUT it keeps piling on, accumulating, until it breaks. 

Economy is great, market strength is great even if somewhat fragile during the past few days, good earnings prospects, but  the catalyst could be political, geopolitical, emerging markets.....



#3 cycletimer

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Posted 21 August 2018 - 10:47 PM

I believe we’ll be stuck in a trading range thru first quarter 2019. It’ll be a wide 10% range (2800-3100) but still a range. Traders will make a paycheck, your average joe, passive index investors will remain bored.

#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 08:13 AM

They are going through the motions here, it's all muscle memory...

The 13 year old kid manning the console down at the GS trading desk has loaded the "Fed Notes" programs into the deck this morning and we're on auto pilot.

Now, the problem is we have an embedded very bearish thought in the collective subconscious of the market...

There's something to play for... How about Nasdaq 5000?

Give up the entire Trump premium.

That's the prize...

It's not on my calendar in this time frame, it may take weeks of unwinding...

If this is truly the black swan...

Might just be an old Grey Goose.

laugh.gif


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#5 diogenes227

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Posted 22 August 2018 - 01:22 PM

They are going through the motions here, it's all muscle memory...

The 13 year old kid manning the console down at the GS trading desk has loaded the "Fed Notes" programs into the deck this morning and we're on auto pilot.

Now, the problem is we have an embedded very bearish thought in the collective subconscious of the market...

There's something to play for... How about Nasdaq 5000?

Give up the entire Trump premium.

That's the prize...

It's not on my calendar in this time frame, it may take weeks of unwinding...

If this is truly the black swan...

Might just be an old Grey Goose.

laugh.gif

 

yes.gif


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."