4 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Thursday was a really SLoooooooooooowwwwwwwwwww  day !!!

 

Market treadnig water, going nowhere real fast, but the trend is still up and as they say: "never short a dull market" to which I add: "except day-trading 1-min bars"

 

ST BUY exit was almost hit as SPX closed just above the stop value. 

So, ST BUY still in effect with SPX daily STOP @ 2855.7

 

IT neutral.

IT entry buy stop @ SPX 2869.5, IT sell entry stop @ 2849 (daily SPX close)

Edited by dTraderB, 24 August 2018 - 06:42 AM.

[dTraderB]

The growing Trump scandal isn’t dampening the market’s mood and traders are not concerned about recent developments. These events first came out months ago and if prices were going to tumble, they would have done so back then. The fact we didn’t sell off initially tells us we don’t need to worry about these headlines today. If the market doesn’t care, then neither should we. The market’s benign reaction the last two days confirms that outlook.

It’s been a while since Turkey and trade wars made the headlines and our “no news is good news” market continues hovering near all-time highs. While confident owners have zero interest in selling the news, it is harder to convince those with cash to buy these highs and is why the gains have stalled. We are at the tail end of the slow summer season and it will be a few more weeks before we start seeing more meaningful buying.

Many money managers are underweight stocks because they sold defensively earlier in the year. These managers have been desperately waiting for a pullback so they could jump back in. Unfortunately, the market is not cooperating and this latest round of gains is pressuring them to chase prices higher. Once they give up waiting for the pullback, they are going to be forced to bite the bullet and buy stocks at all-time highs. The breakout is not imminent, but it is coming.

Even though the market is acting well, we are still vulnerable to near-term volatility. Risk is a function of height and it would be normal, even routine for the market to dip modestly here. Prices are responding well to these Trump headlines. That means we are more likely to go higher than lower, but the risks of a small dip are always there. As long as we know what to expect, we are less likely to overreact to a modest bump in the road.

At this point, any dip is a buying opportunity, not an excuse to sell stocks. Remember, we take profits by selling strength, not weakness. If someone is not sure they can sit through a small dip, they should take profits now. Otherwise, there is nothing to do other than patiently watch the profits pile up.

https://cracked.mark...-trump-scandal/

[dTraderB]

Don’t Expect Any President to Sink or Save the Market

I prefer to steer clear of politics around here, but about once a day, an investor will ask me, “So…when will Trump sink the market?” At the other end, President Trump offered his take that impeachment would wreck the market. The president added, ominously, that, “everybody would be very poor.”

Eh, I’m not so sure about that. It’s true that the stock market got shellacked during Watergate, but it did well after President Clinton’s difficulties. (Sorry, I don’t have data on Andrew Johnson.) To be fair to President Nixon, there were a lot of other things going on during Watergate. The economy was tanking, inflation was soaring, and the Middle East was in flames. The 1973-74 market bust-up was one of the worst on record.

In reality, I don’t think the occupant of the White House has a large influence on the financial markets. I realize that may sound heretical to some, but I stand by it. After the election in 2016, Paul Krugman wrote, “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.” And he has a Nobel Prize! Politics and investing don’t mix well. In the short-run, sure—the president certainly matters. But in the long run, it’s all about sales, earnings and interest rates. Money stuff: that’s what counts.

After President Trump’s election in 2016, there was a definite Trump Bump, but it didn’t last long. You can also see the impact on certain sectors. Healthcare stocks got spooked during Hillary Clinton’s healthcare initiative in 1994. Gun stocks often jump after a shooting on fears (or hopes) that folks will rush to buy before a new anti-gun law is passed.

My take is that financial markets are probably more influential on policy makers than vice versa. In 1981, François Mitterrand shocked the world by getting elected president of France. He had a bold socialist program. Unfortunately for him, forex traders found out, and the franc got sautéed. The weak currency started to hurt the French economy. In other words, Mitterand’s brand of socialism was hurting workers, and within two years, he did an about-face (Tournant de la rigueur).

It’s odd how we act like politicians are players in a game, and the market is the scoreboard. I sometimes wonder if it’s the other way around. I’ll reiterate my position that the U.S. economy is mostly good right now. Not perfect, but good. On Thursday, jobless claims again came close to their lowest level since Altamont. Corporate earnings are pretty good. Inflation and interest rates are still low. In fact, the real Fed funds rate is still negative!

The growing Trade War is a concern. In fact, this week’s Fed minutes indicated that FOMC members discussed the issue at their last meeting. Even Hormel, a Buy List member, said that tariffs could hurt them this year. Still, trade probably isn’t large enough to sink the economy.

Truthfully, the most important sector to watch is housing. This is the tail that wags the dog. For the most part, housing looks pretty good. Mortgage delinquencies are running at a 12-year low. There could be some cracks showing in housing’s facade. For example, Redfin’s stock got pummeled earlier this month. I don’t want to overstate the case. There could be big problems soon, but for now, there’s no reason to believe any president or any party will wreck the stock market.

[dTraderB]

Opened a small "exploratory" VXX LONG@ 28.49

 

Will add more LONGs in low 28s and lower

[dTraderB]

Looks like the market may surge to that 2905 target

 

BUT, market still has to do a lot &  the CRASH WINDOW is still cracked open, a tad wider. 

 

A powerful market that even shrugs this off is a BULL not to be ignored:

 

Longtime Trump Organization CFO Weisselberg granted immunity in Cohen probe

• Allen Weisselberg, longtime chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, has been granted immunity by federal prosecutors as part of an investigation into President Donald Trump's former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing sources.
• Weisselberg had been subpoenaed by prosecutors earlier this year to testify before a grand jury as part of that probe, the Journal reported.

https://www.cnbc.com...ng-sources.html