3 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

This week the system indicates a higher risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend on Monday the 27th and Friday the 31st.  The Monday risk window probably should be stretched into Tuesday morning given the distribution of risk turns at the front end of the week.  Also the Friday window is actually centered early during the long weekend so it too should probably should be stretched to the open on September the 4th.

 

Last week the system redeemed itself hitting 2 for 2 after a dreadful 0 for 2 the previous week.  I assume that the potential Black Swans that I warned about are floating feet up in the East River apparently shot down like many of their dear departed kin by the pumping FED.  The trading system has a sell signal waiting for trend confirmation, but several such sells have fizzled out in the recent past waiting on the trend to turn.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 26 August 2018 - 11:42 AM.

[da_cheif]

This week the system indicates a higher risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend on Monday the 27th and Friday the 31st.  The Monday risk window probably should be stretched into Tuesday morning given the distribution of risk turns at the front end of the week.  Also the Friday window is actually centered early during the long weekend so it too should probably should be stretched to the open on September the 4th.

 

Last week the system redeemed itself hitting 2 for 2 after a dreadful 0 for 2 the previous week.  I assume that the potential Black Swans that I warned about are floating feet up in the East River apparently shot down like many of their dear departed kin by the pumping FED.  The trading system has a sell signal waiting for trend confirmation, but several such sells have fizzled out in the recent past waiting on the trend to turn.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

>but several such sells have fizzled out in the recent past<     well i guess they werent what you thought they were   675ono

[bighouse1006]

Thanks for the update!

[Douglas]

Don, the system sell signal and risk turn window combinations correctly catch short term down moves roughly 70% of the time within a 10 or so day window.  It's hard to know at this point if this one will fizzle, but hope springs eternal.  The futures this morning are running up apparently due to over-the-weekend good news about a trade agreement with Mexico which doesn't bode well for the signal.  If the signal is valid, the DJIA should be sharply lower before the day after Labor Day's risk window close.  I think that's the crow eating day for this signal.  

 

Regards,

Douglas