67 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

I see an A-B-C UP here to 8 on USD/TRY (Daily Chart).  Think of the consequences... GS says it's over for Turkey at 7.2.

 

[NAV]

If turkey fails, the European debtors should be the one's who should be really worried. That would be bullish for dollar. Like Mark said a few days back all that dollars returning back to the U.S should put the U.S stocks on fire. It's would be very bullish for the U.S stocks.

 

When we had a knee jerk sell-off a couple of weeks over the LIRA crisis, the emerging markets shrugged off the news. India's Nifty went on to make a new all time high. It was almost like "Turkey going down. Who cares ?".

 

The U.S markets will rise regardless of what LIRA does.

Edited by NAV, 29 August 2018 - 09:43 AM.

[libertas]

Long volatility, moi.

[Data]

The largest capitalized stocks in the indexes are buying back their stock.   They were the ones who had shielded 2-3 trillion dollars in domestic profits from taxes by setting up shell companies in foreign tax havens.  I believe the quiet period of buybacks doesn't start again until 30 days before the company reports its earnings sometime in October or November.

 

Actually, the dollar has been falling since the crux of the trade negotiations is to force China to appreciate its currency.   This was done in 1985-1987 under a different regime.

 

Also, weighing on the dollar are the fiscal and trade deficits are also starting to explode in the past month.   The US could well have 2 trillion dollars in twin deficits for 2019.  It's reminiscent of Bush's last years in office.  

Edited by Data, 29 August 2018 - 10:03 AM.

[libertas]

A long time ago Peter Eliades said (approximately, I forget the exact words): "When the market is at an extreme, the analyst's advice is at its most valuable. But no-one wants advice. When the market is between extremes, the analyst's advice is at its least valuable. That is when everyone wants advice."

 

Wise words, IMO.

[SemiBizz]

For me it's all about the charts...

 

If I see USD/TRY trading at 6.70s tomorrow...

 

I will take action.

[redfoliage2]

I have been expecting a flash crash in a few days pending a trigger.  This could become the needed trigger.

Today the market is front running on a possible agreement between US Canada on trade talk ............

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 August 2018 - 11:34 AM.

[SemiBizz]

Anything is possible... I'm not looking for a flash crash...

 

I'm on record... Up into early to mid-September.

 

In the meantime, we're still not seeing enough sellers to turn it back down...

 

Central Banker fire hoses of cash just spraying away...

 

How do I know?  Who else continues to buy AAPL?  SNB - one of their sweeties is AAPL, they own a LOT.

[Data]

It helps if they raise margin requirement on tech stocks (Apr 2000) or VIX etns (Feb 2018), or if QE ends in both US, Japan, and  Europe (2010, 2011, and 2012).

Edited by Data, 29 August 2018 - 11:46 AM.

[libertas]

One should bear in mind that any significant selling will likely result in a repetition of the February punishment of the volatility shorts.