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Still lots of life left in this bull...


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#1 tsharp

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Posted 31 August 2018 - 09:17 PM

When I first posted my forecast for SPX ~3600, I thought the market was going to be there sooner than it has moved thus far.  That said, and using my own momentum TL method of determining bull market from bear market, I extrapolate the TL out and see the confluence of the TL and the 100 support line are in 2021... I wonder now if 3600 will be just another target along the way, as my second target will take the SPX to above the 4700 level... twt.

 

SPX_W_8.31.18.jpg



#2 tsharp

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Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:35 AM

When I first posted my forecast for SPX ~3600, I thought the market was going to be there sooner than it has moved thus far.  That said, and using my own momentum TL method of determining bull market from bear market, I extrapolate the TL out and see the confluence of the TL and the 100 support line are in 2021... I wonder now if 3600 will be just another target along the way, as my second target will take the SPX to above the 4700 level... twt.

 

SPX_W_8.31.18.jpg

 

 

I mentioned a higher target, if wave-5 extends, and that it needed to exceed ~4700... here's that arguement:

 

In the chart below I suggest this great bull market run began in 1974 at a low of ~61 up to ~338 in 1987 for an approximate 5.5X over thirteen years.

 

Wave-2 was a very sharp correction that ran from the week of 8.24.87 – to the week of 10.19.87, and corrected the SPX to the tune of 36% over two months, leaving the SPX at ~216.

 

Wave-3 picked up from there and ran from 1987 – 2000, taking the SPX from ~216 – ~1530 (truncated wave-e:v:III) for an approximate 7.06X over thirteen years.

 

Wave-4 began the week of 8.28.2000 from a truncated fifth wave high of 1530 (an ending diagonal triangle) and lasted through the week of 3.2.2009 (nearly nine years) and corrected the market by about 56% to the low of ~667.

 

This takes us to the wave in which we are now operating, wave-5.  The start date of this leg of the bull market is the week of 3.2.2009, and if the wave-1 = wave-5 scenario plays out it would last some thirteen years, taking it out to ~2022 and to a price level of ~3660.

 

If wave-5 extends, meaning it becomes the longest of the impulsive waves, the price would need to exceed ~4700.

 

If wave-5 does extend and needs to exceed ~4700, then I suggest ~5071 would be the most likely candidate for a final high, which is the 3x extension of wave-3.

 

SPX Monthly:

 

SPX_M_8.31.18-1.jpg


Edited by tsharp, 01 September 2018 - 08:36 AM.


#3 tsharp

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Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:46 AM

SPX monthly log-scale chart with channels I posted yesterday on my IG:  @milehighstrategies

 

SPX_M_9.1.18.jpg



#4 tsharp

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Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:58 AM

Then also the bigger picture, relative to the US markets only (I realize there is a larger, longer world perspective, ala Bob Prechter)... SPX 100-year chart:

 

SPX_100-year-2.jpg


Edited by tsharp, 03 September 2018 - 10:02 AM.


#5 12SPX

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Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:12 AM

Then also the bigger picture, relative to the US markets only (I realize there is a larger, longer world perspective, ala Bob Prechter)... SPX 100-year chart:

 

SPX_100-year-2.jpg

Thankyou for lines that actually show a trend, nice chart!!