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Elevated Risk of Turn Around Friday the 7th


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 04 September 2018 - 12:45 AM

According to my system the day this week with the most risk cycle turns and therefore highest risk of a turn or acceleration of the current broad stock market trend is Friday the 7th.  

 

Last Monday the 27th risk window caught an acceleration event when short traders were caught on the wrong side of good trade news.  The Friday the 31st risk window appears to have caught a minor turn up, but if the market doesn't move up smartly in the next couple of days, the turn signal should probably just be called a garden variety dud.

 

The thing I hate most about eating crow are the feathers.  They're so crunchy.  Last weekend I speculated that the combination of a solid system sell warning signal and a couple of decent risk windows last week would send the stock market sharply lower by the morning of the day after labor day.  The trend change to trigger a sell never came.  The trend indicator as of Friday's close is still a very healthy +92%.  Unless something awful happens in the Tuesday early morning to redeem that lousy cracked crystal ball call, I'll be munching crunchy crow pie for lunch today.  Yum!

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 05 September 2018 - 02:06 AM

Well, given the action on Tuesday, the Friday the 31st turn window is officially a dud, but the good news for me at least is that the slight turn down yesterday did revive from the dead my sell off forecast from last week.  Maybe I was just early, not wrong (I know for you short term guys early is wrong).  For the time being until the short term trend picks a direction over the next couple of days, I've put the crow pie in the frig.  

 

Regards,

Douglas