21 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Not many seem to be doing it. At least not on this board. 

 

Made 50 handles this month again. New highs as expected. 

 

http://www.traders-t...169972-bullish/

[bighouse1006]

Great job Nav! But I think most traders are bullish. Most of the sentiment I see leans bullish. I dont see the constant bearish sentiment I normally see. I developed a program that matches the short term candlestick patterns with patterns from the past. A year or 2 ago it would give a couple bearish options. Not lately, they are all bullish.

[NAV]

Great job Nav! But I think most traders are bullish. Most of the sentiment I see leans bullish. I dont see the constant bearish sentiment I normally see. I developed a program that matches the short term candlestick patterns with patterns from the past. A year or 2 ago it would give a couple bearish options. Not lately, they are all bullish.

 

This board is predominantly bearish. That said, there is a lot of useful sentiment data to be gathered by just watching the behaviour of certain posters. 

 

The passive folks, retirement money, foreign money are driving this bull. I do see signs of speculative behaviour developing. I don't see it in the U.S indices yet. But you can see it on the Nikkei, the Cannabis stocks in U.S. When the U.S indices goes nuts like Nikkei and the garbage starts rallying, i would get concerned. But i think it's months away. 

Edited by NAV, 20 September 2018 - 11:24 PM.

[tsharp]

The Bull Market Momentum Conundrum

 

The chart below is the weekly SPX going back to 1987, with my momentum indicator set-up.

 

Notice the arrows pointing out the 1998 touch on the first UTL and the final drop through the same by the momentum indicator line… the gain was from ~920 to the peak of ~1550, for a 68% gain over about two years – while the momentum indicator line was continuing to drop!

 

Then notice the second UTL when it was touched about two years ago at the ~1810 low to the first peak of ~2870, for a gain of 59% – over about two years… AND also notice that the momentum indicator line is no where near the UTL!

 

Can you now understand why I have suggested that my first projected target of ~3600 may not be high enough?

 

Foreign capital is just now starting to migrate to the US markets… my next higher target of ~5071 may not seem so unrealistic once everyone wants in… just musing before I hit the hay.

 

 

Edited by tsharp, 20 September 2018 - 11:24 PM.

[NAV]

tsharp, 

 

I have similar long term momenum stuff, which says at least 5-6 months rally left, before any big drop. Don't know about SPX 5000. That's da_cheif turf. 

Edited by NAV, 20 September 2018 - 11:33 PM.

[bighouse1006]

SPX 5000 would be great, but just trying to figure out tomorrow.

[NAV]

Don't know whether the market goes to SPX 3500 or 5000. It's immaterial. But do not put any upper limit or barrier to the market. The great Richard Dennis talked about this in the Market Wizards. Every trader should read Jack Shwager's Market Wizards.

 

And folks like Hussman are learning it now

 

"To learn from my error, and prevent one you may be about to make, understand there's no defined "limit" to speculation especially in the face of extraordinary policies. But that doesn't reduce the value of valuations or market internals, nor the risk when both are unfavorable."

 

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1041013618865840128

 

Slowly but surely, the fundamentalists are understanding and are able to appreciate Technical analysis and market trends. 

[12SPX]

 

Great job Nav! But I think most traders are bullish. Most of the sentiment I see leans bullish. I dont see the constant bearish sentiment I normally see. I developed a program that matches the short term candlestick patterns with patterns from the past. A year or 2 ago it would give a couple bearish options. Not lately, they are all bullish.

 

This board is predominantly bearish. That said, there is a lot of useful sentiment data to be gathered by just watching the behaviour of certain posters. 

 

The passive folks, retirement money, foreign money are driving this bull. I do see signs of speculative behaviour developing. I don't see it in the U.S indices yet. But you can see it on the Nikkei, the Cannabis stocks in U.S. When the U.S indices goes nuts like Nikkei and the garbage starts rallying, i would get concerned. But i think it's months away. 

 

I disagree sorry, I'm always neutral based because I just sell premium both sides so I never care where the market is going just by how much. What I see mostly are people actually just looking for tradable short and intermediate bottoms.  The market does go up and down so being called "traders talk" makes sense.  The couple guys that call for the S&P to fall -50% are offset by da chiefs to the moon and Fib who never says anything but up.  

[fib_1618]

 

 

Great job Nav! But I think most traders are bullish. Most of the sentiment I see leans bullish. I dont see the constant bearish sentiment I normally see. I developed a program that matches the short term candlestick patterns with patterns from the past. A year or 2 ago it would give a couple bearish options. Not lately, they are all bullish.

 

This board is predominantly bearish. That said, there is a lot of useful sentiment data to be gathered by just watching the behaviour of certain posters. 

 

The passive folks, retirement money, foreign money are driving this bull. I do see signs of speculative behaviour developing. I don't see it in the U.S indices yet. But you can see it on the Nikkei, the Cannabis stocks in U.S. When the U.S indices goes nuts like Nikkei and the garbage starts rallying, i would get concerned. But i think it's months away. 

 

 

.....and Fib who never says anything but up. 

 

Really? 

 

Amazing.

 

Fib

[12SPX]

 

 

 

Great job Nav! But I think most traders are bullish. Most of the sentiment I see leans bullish. I dont see the constant bearish sentiment I normally see. I developed a program that matches the short term candlestick patterns with patterns from the past. A year or 2 ago it would give a couple bearish options. Not lately, they are all bullish.

 

This board is predominantly bearish. That said, there is a lot of useful sentiment data to be gathered by just watching the behaviour of certain posters. 

 

The passive folks, retirement money, foreign money are driving this bull. I do see signs of speculative behaviour developing. I don't see it in the U.S indices yet. But you can see it on the Nikkei, the Cannabis stocks in U.S. When the U.S indices goes nuts like Nikkei and the garbage starts rallying, i would get concerned. But i think it's months away. 

 

 

.....and Fib who never says anything but up. 

 

Really? 

 

Amazing.

 

Fib

 

Ya really, I've never read one post from you about an actual trade with the movement of the market!!   I heard lots of guys talking about this past little correction and then onto new highs, not a peep from you for example.  The name of this site is called "traders talk" not "buy and hold talk".  I fully admit I never make any "tradeable posts but thats because I don't trade but I love reading and respect everyones comments so I figure I'm pretty neutral.