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#11 fib_1618

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 10:27 AM

 

 

The divergence is actually over about a month's time, so that's even more of a bearish sign as distribution has been going on.

 

Let's be absolutely clear here...this is NOT a sign of distribution...it's a sign of liquidity levels in relation to underlying price support.

 

If you're going to "analyze" something technical at least take the time to functionally understand what you're looking at.

 

As far as the MCSUM is concerned, the directional trending sequence is not always that of being "dangerous" or constructive.

 

Most times it's just the market easing off its emotional monetary extremes (supply and demand).

 

Fib

 

 

 

Wrong again.  The A/D is supposed to be your expertise, yet you completely ignored this historical divergence.

 

 

Now you're just being indignant, if not foolish.

 

Doesn't matter,,,you'll never learn anyway.

 

Fib


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#12 CLK

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 12:48 PM

No, you're just trying to protect your reputation, regardless what you might have posted on your site after I posted the chart, you still said it was not distribution and not dangerous, I think price action says you are wrong. Nothing indignant or foolish, and you think you know everything, well you obviously don't, just back-peddling to save your image.  If you still think this is nothing but a blip, and new ATH'S after, that's fine but no one here or anywhere I know is interested in taking 100 point drawdowns to ultimately watch something come back, someday.


Edited by CLK, 05 October 2018 - 12:49 PM.


#13 fib_1618

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 03:28 PM

No, you're just trying to protect your reputation, regardless what you might have posted on your site after I posted the chart, you still said it was not distribution and not dangerous, I think price action says you are wrong. Nothing indignant or foolish, and you think you know everything, well you obviously don't, just back-peddling to save your image.  If you still think this is nothing but a blip, and new ATH'S after, that's fine but no one here or anywhere I know is interested in taking 100 point drawdowns to ultimately watch something come back, someday.

 

Lots of assumptions there and you continue to take things out of context.

 

You still never asked me why or what was the difference (or whether I've been on target all this time either) but I thought it would be instructive to do so as a matter of clarity.

 

The word "distribution" is so overused it would seem that very few have a substantive way of proving such technical anomalies.

 

YOU called me out. YOU made a post on the subject. I pointed out the differences. You became indignant on the actual reason why a change in direction might occur.

 

As far as my reputation is concerned, it's intact and doesn't need any further pimping like some here on the board.

 

You prefer to do it your way, that's fine too, but at least understand what you're talking about as not to look foolish.

 

When I was finally asked in another thread what my analysis was back on September 21st, I added this to the thread which I wrote a full month ago on September 7th:

 

"So with the BETS moving sharply lower this week to a +10 reading, we are now back to a "neutral, cash position" trading stance for investors. With many of the breadth McClellan Oscillators still supporting patterns of rising bottoms, the abrupt weakness that we saw in the interest rates sensitive issues last week did break the divergent bullish back of the NYSE Composite breadth McClellan Oscillator on Friday. This now suggests that it's unlikely that there will be any further rally beyond September OPEX on the 21st and that there is likely to be some bearish turbulence as we go into the beginning of October as the market internals find a way to construct a new platform. Because of this then, traders and scalpers are back to playing "hit and run" with their daily trades, while with investors it's likely that we'll see the markets firm for the next couple weeks providing exit points along the way for any open long positions."

 

http://www.traders-t...arket/?p=788195

 

I now challenge you (or anyone else) to show a better timely forecast anywhere in the business. Oh, and did I mention, I used that darn NYAD line, a measure of liquidity, to help in making it?

 

So although you also made a timely call September 27th, you did so not so much for the wrong reason on a cursory level, but you continued to misunderstand the significance of what was actually being represented. This is why you still have problems working with this indicator, and though I have tried my best over the years to help you and others to see the light, I guess one also has to have the ability to be open to concepts that may only look good in their personal theory.

 

Now have a nice day...kudos on the call.

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 05 October 2018 - 03:32 PM.

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

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#14 CLK

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 04:23 PM

I didn't say anything about McClellan Oscillators, I specifically mentioned NYAD and the weekly divergence that

had not been seen since 2015. I've watched the general internals deteriorate too, but that happens on a regular basis,

you rarely see a true NYAD divergence over 2-3 weeks time, maybe over a few days and then it disappears, but not like this one.

Whether the market is able to make new highs or not, I predict that there will be a correction lasting 2-3 months like in 2015.

Whether it turns into a crash or bear market I don't know but the possibility is there now.

 

I didn't ask what the difference was because you said it was just backing off to support levels, there was no reason to ask further because your mind was made up. Nowhere in this thread have you conceded that this divergence could lead to a possible bear market or crash, when the very presence of that divergence is all that's needed and has been missing in every other sell off since 2015.

 

Internals are ok for ETF's, but not usually timely enough for options trading, I rely on price for that, I'd rather be a little late than early or wrong. For predictive trading I prefer relying on volume and support/resistance rather than oscillators, although I use some MACD at extremes.


Edited by CLK, 05 October 2018 - 04:29 PM.


#15 fib_1618

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 06:08 PM

I didn't say anything about McClellan Oscillators

 

Neither did I...nor does did the subject even come up in the thread except the quote given back in early September (though the MCO measures the short term trend velocity of the A/D line itself)

 

The MCSUM did come up from "Print Faster" and I addressed that in one of my replies.

 

Take a deep breath and try to calm down...you're taking this way beyond where it needs to go. Maybe rereading the thread with a glass of wine might prove beneficial.

 

By the way...the market isn't as predicable as one might think...otherwise, everyone would be making money and wouldn't need to waste their time reading threads like this one.

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 05 October 2018 - 06:09 PM.

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#16 CLK

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 08:42 AM

"By the way...the market isn't as predicable as one might think...otherwise, everyone would be making money and wouldn't need to waste their time reading threads like this one."

 

 

Agree, most people think it can be predictable, on a regular basis, and spend years in search of that method, to no avail.

 

I gave up on all that pretty much, but I do have some rare setups that are very high odds and I take them, the rest of the time I just follow price,

it's much easier but you just have to wait a lot and do nothing instead of trying 10+ attempts at front-running before finding the turn.

 

I did post the NYAD divergence when it happened in 2015, it didn't get much interest just like now, but I have had people tell me way after the fact to keep us posted if you see that again, now I posted it again in real time but nobody seems to care, people in general are only interested if something is proven in hindsight, but after a long time it's back to skepticism again.


Edited by CLK, 06 October 2018 - 08:42 AM.


#17 fib_1618

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 10:41 AM

I did post the NYAD divergence when it happened in 2015, it didn't get much interest just like now, but I have had people tell me way after the fact to keep us posted if you see that again, now I posted it again in real time but nobody seems to care, people in general are only interested if something is proven in hindsight, but after a long time it's back to skepticism again.

 

Welcome to the club.

 

BTW...I just got this timely market review from Tom McClellan just this morning that nicely compliments our discussion: http://tinyurl.com/yczgl7nq

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#18 CLK

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 11:14 AM

I just read the article, I agree with everything he said, but I don't agree with comparing the A/D to the Dow,

at the most I use SPY but try to use NYA if possible. The divergence he highlighted last Oct. ,when compared to NYA

was really not a divergence at all, NYA moved down with NYAD. So this latest divergence is the worst since 2015, I think it

leads to a 10% or better correction, maybe not a bear market, but like he said if it persists for months could be another 50% drop.

I'm not sure what the significance is of NYA not making it to new ATH'S yet.