Here’s my view of the SPX monthly…
Fifth waves are notorious for extending, especially at the end of an incredible bull market as we’re seeing here in the US – that is why I added a second, higher target of ~5100, beyond my initial 4.9.16 projection of ~3600.
Outside of an exogenous event, the SPX is no where near a final high… the momentum indicator line is moving upward, not downward, AND is up near its DTL…
What kind of event could “trigger” the end?
- In 1997 it was the Asian Contagion that started when Thailand floated the Baht.
- In 1998 it was the Russian Ruble being devalued.
- In 2008 it was the sub-prime lending debacle in the US that led to a global crises when Lehman Brothers went BK.
And while these all seemed like the end of the world at the time they were taking place, the market bounced back and found a way to climb higher.
I have no idea what the next trigger will be, and it doesn’t matter… like life, markets move in ebb-and-flow, yin-and-yang – CYCLES – at all manner of magnitude, and we are approaching the end of an up cycle, which will bring on another down cycle… if you’re not ready; get ready!
Edited by tsharp, 30 September 2018 - 10:03 AM.
