8 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Strong NAFTA rally, will it last the whole session or give up the ghost as in previous sessions? 

 

SPX must close above 2924 for the bullish trend to continue 

 

ST long exit stop @ 2913.2

 

IT long exit stop @ 2909.5

[dTraderB]

TESLA relief rally...HUGE! 

 

will fade later and during the week

[dTraderB]

It doesn’t help investor confidence that the autumn months tend to be a tricky time for other risky markets. Since 1990, October has actually been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with gains averaging 1.7%. But some of the most infamous stock-market crashes ever have also happened in October—1929, 1987, as well as a smaller but more recent tumble in 2014. These episodes scarred investors, making them jittery during this period.

There are also events on the horizon that could stir up more unrest for financial markets: November meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders to resolve the months-long trade spat and U.S. midterm congressional elections on Nov. 6.

“The trade fight is the main aspect the markets will look at,” said Edward Meir, a consultant at broker-dealer INTL FCStone. “If there’s pressure, it will come from that side of it.”

Paradoxically, adding to the worries of materials markets is the robust American economy and the investors who have been flocking there for its relative safety. Favorable U.S. economic data has pushed investors to the dollar and benchmarks like the S&P 500.

A stronger dollar makes materials denominated in the U.S. currency more expensive for overseas buyers. October has traditionally been kind to the dollar, so a continuation of that trend could also signal more pain for commodities ahead.

Kenny Jimenez contributed to this article.

Are you bullish on commodities as October begins? Let the author know your thoughts at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com. Emailed comments may be edited before publication in future newsletters, and please make sure to include your name and location.

[dTraderB]

I am 80% short QQQ!!!   Will liquidate a few QQQ puts I opened earlier today. Daytrading QQQ options, VXX, and NQ!!

DP Bulletin: NDX Adds Short-Term PMO BUY Signal

Erin Swenlin | October 01, 2018 at 11:09 AM

On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) switched to a Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. It joins the Dow which already had a PMO BUY signal that was logged on 9/19/18. The SPX and OEX are the laggards right now. I've annotated the PMO BUY signal. The prominent features of this price chart are the rising bottoms trendline as well as the tiny breakout intraday. Likely helped by the new NAFTA announcement, markets are rising higher. The OEX could finish the day with a new PMO BUY signal. The dominant feature on this chart would be..

 

The SPX hasn't yet challenged its recent all-time high as of publishing, but I don't think today's rally will be enough to get that PMO BUY signal triggered.

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

https://stockcharts....buy-signal.html

 

[dTraderB]

ES 2929/30 is good intraday support

 

The Federal Reserve’s “r-star” Has Gone Full Supernova

My latest at Bloomberg is now up. We have been building up to this since Powell took the stage at Jackson Hole:

The Federal Reserve’s “r-star” has gone full supernova. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, its key proponent, made clear in a speech late Friday that the neutral interest rate is no longer a guiding star for monetary policy. This means a federal funds rate in the range of what is considered neutral has no special significance as far as policy is concerned.

That is hawkish relative to any expectations that the Fed would pause as policy rates approach a level that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy. And it again highlights the importance of the incoming economic data. The Fed isn’t holding your hand anymore…

Continued at Bloomberg Opinion.

[redfoliage2]

Stock indices going up with internals severely lagging.  This is not a sustainable rally, but a spike on the NAFTA news and will be sold soon.  I'm buying VXX expecting a unstable October..............

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 October 2018 - 12:36 PM.

[dTraderB]

Daytrading VXX until I see VIX go a bit lower or get a VIX buy; after that I will hold VXX long overnight. 

[PrintFaster]

TLT under relentless selling pressure.

 

As usual, the Fed raises interest rates "until something breaks"

 

Banks are getting hammered.

 

Trump is not going to be happy with Powell.  Expect some major jawboning to commence shortly.

 

 

[PrintFaster]

Oil and gasoline on an epic breakout