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OT: Stock market top?


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#11 dougie

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 03:06 PM

so far todays decline is more evidence of a market top and looks like wave 3 down is very possibly underway and we could decline several hundred more Dow pts here quickly. Be interesting how far down it "might" drag the miners. Ultimately I believe a several month or more mkt decline will be bullish for metals/miners

 

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ultimately is a long time?



#12 senorBS

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 04:06 PM

 

so far todays decline is more evidence of a market top and looks like wave 3 down is very possibly underway and we could decline several hundred more Dow pts here quickly. Be interesting how far down it "might" drag the miners. Ultimately I believe a several month or more mkt decline will be bullish for metals/miners

 

Senor

ultimately is a long time?

 

if market opinion is correct then "ultimately" may be now or days IMO, but WTFDIK , its all a best "guess" or "smell" perhapsnapoleon.gif 

 

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#13 dougie

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 06:58 PM

indeed.



#14 dharma

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 09:59 PM

yes, its early in the decline. the big day in 87 was the 19th . gann respected and kept records of anniversary dates. i have never seen evidence of a 31 yr cycle but my knowledge of history is limited.  today gold spurted up at the end of the day, and so did the miners. there are have been a couple of capitulations in the last 2 months. are the miners sold out. the sentiment figures at that time showed 6dsi that is extreme.   gld to me looks like a wave 4 triangle.  . miners are sowing divergences w/many generals showing bottom and some jrs too. some look lower. prospect generators are an interesting concept and play.  when you look at weekly and monthly charts of spx, indu, ndx  they look like a straight up rocket ride since 09.  i am holding onto the idea that this was wave 3 blowoff. we are in 4 here w/5 blast off to come. i am basing it on weimar. the german stock market did well until the inflation got out of hand. 

so the fed w/raising rates. and trump trying to win a trade war that has never happened in history. but getting rid of nafta and the new trade agreement w/our neighbors is much better for we the people it is a much better agreement. so maybe the madness and ego has some street savvy   we shall see. 

the thing is how does the fed respond to the broad market, the real economy,, consumer confidence respond to the decline.   does trump circumvent the fed by lowering the dollar? keeping it competitive w/the yuan? its the reaction that determines when the sleeping yellow metal wakes up.  dalio said and i am paraphrasing. you dont know history if you dont own gold

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#15 senorBS

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 07:49 AM

Dharma, gold just exceeded 1209 which eliminates the possibility that this rally was wave E of a contracting tri, now it it fails to soon get above 1214 it could be that the tri is extending and this could be wave "C", however at this time the rally look very impulsive and I will favor a continued move higher unless the action dictates otherwise

 

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#16 Russ

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 08:16 AM

Dharma, gold just exceeded 1209 which eliminates the possibility that this rally was wave E of a contracting tri, now it it fails to soon get above 1214 it could be that the tri is extending and this could be wave "C", however at this time the rally look very impulsive and I will favor a continued move higher unless the action dictates otherwise

 

Senor

this guy has been on top of it... 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



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#17 gannman

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 09:19 AM

The qqq sitting right on 200dma if it breaks decisively below say to 169

A possible crash scenario imo
feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#18 gannman

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 05:31 PM

you might be setting up for a crash of historic proportions 

 

not clear yet def would not be long stocks 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#19 senorBS

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 12:50 PM

almost all the declines off the highs are ABC's so far, is a correction done or is today's big rally a wave 4 soon to end and then we go down in 5? Don't know and got the popcorn out

 

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#20 dougie

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Posted 16 October 2018 - 02:45 PM

almost all the declines off the highs are ABC's so far, is a correction done or is today's big rally a wave 4 soon to end and then we go down in 5? Don't know and got the popcorn out

 

Senor

wave 4 seems ruled out at least in NDX