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Next Turn Risk Window


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 12:40 PM

The system indicates that this whole cotton-pickin' week is one large risk window.  I know that's pretty worthless timing wise, but it is what it is.  

 

With regards to my note last week, I owe Bighouse 1006 an apology.  I forgot to note Wednesday's very low risk cycle reading (2) as risky.  I've posted about this before.  Days with spikes in risk and very low values of risk according to my system both catch turns. Last week I noted that Wednesday only had two risk turns, but failed to make the connection.  Bighouse 1006 correctly called the turn on Wednesday.  Obviously he's not asleep at the wheel!  I'm currently working two jobs which leaves me little time for stock market analysis - that's my lame excuse why I missed this.  Sorry.  This week contains two spikes and three lows, that's why the whole week is one big sinkhole of risk.  I've seen weeks like this before and gotten very excited, noted it here, and then nothing happened.  That's the rotten thing about risk, it doesn't mean certainty, just danger.  This week, Will Robinson, you've got it in spades.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 bighouse1006

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 03:09 PM

Douglas appreciate your work and your posts.

#3 PrintFaster

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 05:06 PM

Internals turned on Labor Day.

 

Complete, total crash in the Summation Index.  Way oversold now, maybe the next turn is up? 

 

 

However if the NY Composite crashes through the 50-day, all bets are off for the bulls.

 


Edited by PrintFaster, 06 October 2018 - 05:08 PM.


#4 bighouse1006

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 06:22 PM

Again I have a turn or reaction day for Wed. convenient that it falls on WWW. I will post a couple more thoughts later. I was short on Wednesday and started a long position late Friday. I would like to see higher Monday and Tuesday for the $RUT and a shakeout on Wednesday.

#5 PrintFaster

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 07:45 PM

One real wildcard that could shake things up:

 

Kavanaugh's rushed swearing in may tell the markets that Trump is under complete control, which means eventually he's going to get on Powell's case for raising rates too fast.

 

Who knows?  Right now the trend is down until we get an easy identified reversal.



#6 Douglas

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 01:35 AM

The largest spike higher in risk cycle turns during this risk infested week according to my system is on Monday the 8th, but the rest of the week is no picnic.  Given the business friendly SCOTUS action this weekend mentioned in the notes above, the odds should favor a turn up on Monday.  The alligator swamp of risk this week should produce several sharp moves. Maybe that's a sharp rally on Monday AND a turn down on WWWednesday as Bighouse 1006 suggests.   

 

Regards,

Douglas



#7 bighouse1006

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:26 PM

The turn is Wednesday.

#8 bighouse1006

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 10:35 AM

Long here.

#9 bighouse1006

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 01:47 PM

Maybe low of day close.

#10 bighouse1006

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Posted 10 October 2018 - 02:13 PM

IWM 161 sometime Friday.