What i don't understand is you call for a long term top in Nasdaq and at the same time call for S&P 5300 long term. That says your analysis w.r.t to one of them is big time wrong
I did say above: "It may be the techs have rolled over..." key word, "may" with a bear market roll over context implied.
I typically post the short version of my thoughts here, since most here are traders...
The longer version posted on my blog also said: "The weekly chart shows an UTL break of the momentum indicator also, what I want to see to confirm (LT down trend is in play) the NDX isn’t extending, is what happens when the price bars hit the lower channel line on the daily chart and what happens when the momentum indicator line comes to the +100 support level on the weekly chart… watching."
What could allow for an extension? A trade deal with China... clearly this trade issue is weighing quite a bit on the tech sector.
You also misquoted my "potential" higher target... it's SPX 5100, not 5300... just sayin... if the tech sector rolls over this early, then likely my lower target from 4.9.16, of ~3600, is still in play and most likely to be where the SPX bull market ends.