Jump to content



Photo

The Bounce, then the crash?


  • Please log in to reply
13 replies to this topic

#11 slupert

slupert

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,060 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 03:54 PM

Sold my qid 38.63, got back in FB before the close, there was a perfect entry at 155 but i missed it. Get a dip tomorrow I'll buy mre FB. (JMHO)



#12 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,154 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 07:06 PM

also even though the last three SPX daily candles were red, there as considerable dip buying, with long tails. 

 

However, the market will need a substantial amount of energy ($$) to rally back towards the record highs and then move above that. 

 

I look for bounces and then back down again. However, any daily close above SPX 2916 will change my outlook from bear to bull. 



#13 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,154 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 07:11 PM

I have an open mind to new ideas, opinions, and concepts, but it does not mean I am easily influenced. In fact, it will take something cosmic to change my trading methods & philosophy. However, i am curious about what others think and an always looking for new information and strategies. I have tried to understand Elliot Wave but it baffles the sht outa me and since I am 100% skeptical of everything it takes a lot to convince me. When I read the analysis below I feel quite sorry for anyone who has to decipher that to trade! But, apparently, people make zillions of profit using Elliot Wave so I still try to see what value I can derive from it:

 

In summary, as long as any rally remains corrective in nature in the coming week, I am looking for the market to drop down to at least the 2,840 region for wave (iv), and ideally as deep as the 2,790 region. My alternative count can even allow for a push higher to the 2,950-70 region for a more extended wave (iii), but I think attempting to trade for that potential carries very high risk. It would now take an impulsive break out over 2,990 at this point in time to make me consider the 3,225 target for 2019. Lastly, unless we see a sustained break down below 2,770, I am still looking for another rally into year end toward the 3,011 region to complete wave (v) of (5) of V of 3 off the 2009 lows.

This brings me back to the warning I have been posting the last month or two. We are now approaching the top to wave 3 off the 2009 lows. That means that when this completes, potentially as early as the end of this year, we will likely begin a 20%-30% correction, which could drop us down as deep as the 2,100 region. So please consider the risk inherent in the market over the next few months.

https://www.marketwa...wave-2018-10-08


Edited by dTraderB, 08 October 2018 - 07:12 PM.


#14 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,044 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:04 PM

I have an open mind to new ideas, opinions, and concepts, but it does not mean I am easily influenced. In fact, it will take something cosmic to change my trading methods & philosophy. However, i am curious about what others think and an always looking for new information and strategies. I have tried to understand Elliot Wave but it baffles the sht outa me and since I am 100% skeptical of everything it takes a lot to convince me. When I read the analysis below I feel quite sorry for anyone who has to decipher that to trade! But, apparently, people make zillions of profit using Elliot Wave so I still try to see what value I can derive from it:

 

In summary, as long as any rally remains corrective in nature in the coming week, I am looking for the market to drop down to at least the 2,840 region for wave (iv), and ideally as deep as the 2,790 region. My alternative count can even allow for a push higher to the 2,950-70 region for a more extended wave (iii), but I think attempting to trade for that potential carries very high risk. It would now take an impulsive break out over 2,990 at this point in time to make me consider the 3,225 target for 2019. Lastly, unless we see a sustained break down below 2,770, I am still looking for another rally into year end toward the 3,011 region to complete wave (v) of (5) of V of 3 off the 2009 lows.

This brings me back to the warning I have been posting the last month or two. We are now approaching the top to wave 3 off the 2009 lows. That means that when this completes, potentially as early as the end of this year, we will likely begin a 20%-30% correction, which could drop us down as deep as the 2,100 region. So please consider the risk inherent in the market over the next few months.

https://www.marketwa...wave-2018-10-08

 

That's why they are called analysts. Analysts can continue to function with cognitive dissonance. They can be half-pregnant, bullish, bearish and neutral all at the same time.

 

A trader cannot be half-pregnant. He needs to have a strong directional bias without any ambiguity, right or wrong. Being wrong is ok. But being in a state of cognitive dissonance is not !. One cannot progress from an analyst to a trader until he learns to conclude his analysis with a concrete signal (with exact numbers) and risk parameters set around those numbers. 


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV