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'The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms.' -- Carl Swenlin


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#11 da_cheif

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 10:10 PM

True. Catching falling knives can be quite painful - physically as well as in your bank account. 

Yet, one has to try to try to follow the market and quickly adjust when the market does turn

Then again, it all depends on your time frame. 

 

I still think we have seen the ST low in this move down but am not confident this rally will go much higher than SPX 2820 or even as high as SPX 2860, and the CRASH WINDOW is still open. 

The selling yesterday was fast & furious, intense, awesome, as every rally was sold down, until the bulls finally won and sent it higher; even so, the bears came in at the end and sent it down a few SPX points. 

The "fear" extremes are enough to generate a rally that can last a day or two, or three, but this move down seems to be in its early stages,  in terms of time. 

 

Here is Carl's article:

DP Weekly Wrap: Picking Bottoms
Carl Swenlin |  October 12, 2018 at 06:38 PM

 

"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms."

       -- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day)

To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be sure, it is a risky endeavor, but after Wednesday's bloodbath I suggested: For those who want to try to pick a bottom, the first short-term indication that a price bottom may be near will be when the daily PMO turns up. I wouldn't jump in until that happens. A daily PMO bottom is not a foolproof signal(see this for yourself by studying PMO bottoms on the charts), but it is at least one way to avoid pure guesswork, and waiting for it gives you an excuse to not act prematurely. Of course, tight stops and a commitment to execute them are part of the equation.

 

15393772848331593571159.png

 As you can see on the chart above, the daily PMO is not even hinting at a possible upturn. I think the price bottom in February is probably an example of what we might expect. It was a small but complex affair with the VIX climax occurring four days ahead of the price low.

 

https://stockcharts....g-a-bottom.html

 

 

poor carl.....he will get bullish during the upcoming week no doubt



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 06:17 AM

$100 oil? $200 oil?  

Maybe, for a brief period, but then down to new 21st Century lows as SPR oil and global shale production drive it to record lows. 

The market is straining to stay afloat amidst a plethora of negatives, and here comes another: Saudis & their allies want to weaponize crude after the alleged murder of a journalist by allegedly their people: 

 

  • "If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure," Turki Aldakhil, the general manager of Saudi Arabia-based Al Arabiya television, said in an opinion piece published Sunday.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...udi-arabia.html



#13 CLK

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 06:47 AM

How would they accomplish that without starving, after the food imports are cut off ?



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 07:30 AM

The "royals" will jet in stuff from Europe while the masses will ..... ?



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 07:34 AM

The "MEDIA INDICATOR" is quite bullish as gloom & doom reports all over the world in all forms of media during the past week or so, especially over the weekend, have created enough negativity to spur the market higher, even if for a session or two. 



#16 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 08:32 AM

I love Carl and have always respected his work, but you know what? I have regretted a lot of top-picking and I've seen tons of market timers taken out by that bad habit. 

 

I have regretted bottom picking but once, and that was during that last horrible bear-market debacle. Even so, I was back at high equity a few weeks off the low, so there's that...

 

Now, I've seen a couple really good traders/investors get taken out by bottom picking (which served them immensely well during a Bull market), but only because they didn't have a Bear Market filter.

 

This latter is hugely important---I consider knowing whether we are in a Bull or Bear Market the most important thing that I do in my work (though I talk about it almost not at all).

 

Right now, we are in a Bull Market and the market is acting just as it should in a Bull Market (albeit in a correction).

 

Mark

 

True. Catching falling knives can be quite painful - physically as well as in your bank account. 

Yet, one has to try to try to follow the market and quickly adjust when the market does turn

Then again, it all depends on your time frame. 

 

I still think we have seen the ST low in this move down but am not confident this rally will go much higher than SPX 2820 or even as high as SPX 2860, and the CRASH WINDOW is still open. 

The selling yesterday was fast & furious, intense, awesome, as every rally was sold down, until the bulls finally won and sent it higher; even so, the bears came in at the end and sent it down a few SPX points. 

The "fear" extremes are enough to generate a rally that can last a day or two, or three, but this move down seems to be in its early stages,  in terms of time. 

 

Here is Carl's article:

DP Weekly Wrap: Picking Bottoms
Carl Swenlin |  October 12, 2018 at 06:38 PM

 

"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms."

       -- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day)

To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be sure, it is a risky endeavor, but after Wednesday's bloodbath I suggested: For those who want to try to pick a bottom, the first short-term indication that a price bottom may be near will be when the daily PMO turns up. I wouldn't jump in until that happens. A daily PMO bottom is not a foolproof signal(see this for yourself by studying PMO bottoms on the charts), but it is at least one way to avoid pure guesswork, and waiting for it gives you an excuse to not act prematurely. Of course, tight stops and a commitment to execute them are part of the equation.

 

15393772848331593571159.png

 As you can see on the chart above, the daily PMO is not even hinting at a possible upturn. I think the price bottom in February is probably an example of what we might expect. It was a small but complex affair with the VIX climax occurring four days ahead of the price low.

 

https://stockcharts....g-a-bottom.html

 

 

 


Mark S Young
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#17 dTraderB

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:02 AM

BADLY want to get into any possible rally! 

 

Front-running it but prepared to risk about $200 per long NQ lot



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 02:40 PM

Bearish below ES 2765

 

Crash Window opens even more below that ES 2765 daily close