True. Catching falling knives can be quite painful - physically as well as in your bank account.
Yet, one has to try to try to follow the market and quickly adjust when the market does turn
Then again, it all depends on your time frame.
I still think we have seen the ST low in this move down but am not confident this rally will go much higher than SPX 2820 or even as high as SPX 2860, and the CRASH WINDOW is still open.
The selling yesterday was fast & furious, intense, awesome, as every rally was sold down, until the bulls finally won and sent it higher; even so, the bears came in at the end and sent it down a few SPX points.
The "fear" extremes are enough to generate a rally that can last a day or two, or three, but this move down seems to be in its early stages, in terms of time.
Here is Carl's article:
DP Weekly Wrap: Picking BottomsCarl Swenlin | October 12, 2018 at 06:38 PM
"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms."
-- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day)
To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be sure, it is a risky endeavor, but after Wednesday's bloodbath I suggested: For those who want to try to pick a bottom, the first short-term indication that a price bottom may be near will be when the daily PMO turns up. I wouldn't jump in until that happens. A daily PMO bottom is not a foolproof signal(see this for yourself by studying PMO bottoms on the charts), but it is at least one way to avoid pure guesswork, and waiting for it gives you an excuse to not act prematurely. Of course, tight stops and a commitment to execute them are part of the equation.
As you can see on the chart above, the daily PMO is not even hinting at a possible upturn. I think the price bottom in February is probably an example of what we might expect. It was a small but complex affair with the VIX climax occurring four days ahead of the price low.
https://stockcharts....g-a-bottom.html
poor carl.....he will get bullish during the upcoming week no doubt