678 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

Off topic  but this article says crude supply will be increasing as far as the eye can see. The continued price drop is good for the US economy and presumably stock market. Down 30% in 6 weeks so far.

 

https://www.bloomber...pump-a-lot-more

[Smithy]

Weds morning, gold has to get over 1228 which is the 3 touch resistance line on 8 hr chart where upon it will start to look like a bull move.

[Smithy]

Sunday Nov 25 - spot gold at 1223

 

Currently flat; will go long if spot gold can get above 1230, with upside potential to 1265 and more.

There is also a good bearish case, including EW count, for $100 drop to say $1,120

The rising USD and plunging crude may take their toll.

 

Comments welcome.

 

 

[Smithy]

If gold were to make a new low next year it would be a Fib 8 yrs from the Sept 2011 peak.

 

The same methodology gives a low for silver at $11.50.

 

Edited by Smithy, 28 November 2018 - 08:13 AM.

[Smithy]

[Smithy]

Sat 12/1  Twiggy

 

[Smithy]

Sunday 12/2 Thorson freebie

 

Generally, gold bottoms within 1-2 days of the December Fed meeting (December 19th). However, the current 30-day cycle supports a low several days later – between the 27th and 31st of December.

[senorBS]

Sat 12/1  Twiggy

 

tonight/Monday will be very interesting regarding the dollar, the China/U.S. agreement to not increase tariffs to 25% Jan 1 and to work toward a solution seems to me to be a "risk on" event where Aussie/Can dollar and others rally and U.S. dollar declines. The dollar has rallied and been strong during this trade tension - will that now start reversing? we see

 

Senor

[Smithy]

[senorBS]

 

Sat 12/1  Twiggy

 

tonight/Monday will be very interesting regarding the dollar, the China/U.S. agreement to not increase tariffs to 25% Jan 1 and to work toward a solution seems to me to be a "risk on" event where Aussie/Can dollar and others rally and U.S. dollar declines. The dollar has rallied and been strong during this trade tension - will that now start reversing? we see

 

Senor

 

So far getting a pretty decent "risk on" bump from the G20 China tariff announcement as thought might happen, Silver leading which makes sense as GSR one session after making another multi yr or decade high at 86.50 area is this morning near 85 - pattern to 86.50 looks like a possible ending diag from 80.70 area, No excuses in gold as if bullish it should be in a wave 3 toward recent high near 1243 - would prefer not to see spot gold pullback below 1225-1226, big day as can we finally get some upside sustainability?

 

Senor