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ST, IT and LT


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#1 NAV

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 11:34 PM

My ST is bearish as of Friday's close. So a retest of the SPX 2710 lows looks like a possibility.

 

IT is bullish. A break below 2710 will turn my IT bearish. If my IT turns bearish and holds above 2500, then i would expect a 1-2 months correction to reset the technical damage and create a base for a rally to new all time highs.

 

LT is bullish. A break belwo SPX 2500 will turn my LT bearish. If 2500 breaks, then a 30% correction would be the logical expectation and could take 8-12 months to complete.

 

So it's pretty simple here. If 2710 holds and we rally, then expect new highs by Jan 2019. If 2710 breaks and 2500 holds, expect a 2 months correction into Jan 2019. If 2500 breaks, then expect a 8-12 months bear market.

 

That's my roadmap for next few months.


Edited by NAV, 21 October 2018 - 11:39 PM.

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#2 CLK

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 12:13 AM

I see nothing but wide swing chop, creating whipsaws. Market is flat at 2770 for the last 12 days. This kind of action would be good for futures but bad for options. Probably going to bounce eventually but could go sideways another month to work off the oversold, 2770 seems to be a magnet.



#3 NAV

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 01:48 AM

I see nothing but wide swing chop, creating whipsaws. Market is flat at 2770 for the last 12 days. This kind of action would be good for futures but bad for options. Probably going to bounce eventually but could go sideways another month to work off the oversold, 2770 seems to be a magnet.

 

If 2710 holds, VIX will collapse and a low volatile uptrend will resume. If 2710 breaks, i agree with you that there will high volatile swings, more suited for intraday traders.


Edited by NAV, 22 October 2018 - 01:49 AM.

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#4 12SPX

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 08:27 AM

 

I see nothing but wide swing chop, creating whipsaws. Market is flat at 2770 for the last 12 days. This kind of action would be good for futures but bad for options. Probably going to bounce eventually but could go sideways another month to work off the oversold, 2770 seems to be a magnet.

 

If 2710 holds, VIX will collapse and a low volatile uptrend will resume. If 2710 breaks, i agree with you that there will high volatile swings, more suited for intraday traders.

 

What number do you have for an upside breakout to occur?



#5 CLK

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 08:42 AM

So 2780 got rejected, classic hourly retest after the signal Friday, if it's good should follow thru now. ES hourly 200ma could be rejected for the 5th time.



#6 hiker

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 08:46 AM

hello NAV, for sure I realize everyone in this biz for years designs their own tool set based

on win vs. loss ratio odds for their own skills and knowledge

 

these 7 pages of live-updating charts are accompanied by

my interpretation for trading bias, updated as needed … these

have been active to the public for about 3 years, and will not be visible

past December 2018

 

https://stockcharts.com/public/1442871
 

take care and glad to hear over the weeks/years that you are enjoying life as your primary focus,

 

I will not be visiting again at this site until October 2019, even

though some of the entertainment is top notch

 

to answer your earlier question about hiking location in summer 2018 -- two of the western

states in the United States and the Rocky Mountains ... my favorite July

location each year burned in a 10-week fire this summer at the 8,000 to 10,600 feet

elevation range … will be interesting next July

 

I am biking a minimum of five hours daily for the next 8 months, fishing, kayaking, hiking

 

FYI - "mss" at this board is noteworthy in his contributions to all of us, over many years

… thank you, mss!


Edited by hiker, 22 October 2018 - 08:53 AM.


#7 NAV

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 09:14 AM

Hiker,

 

Nice charts.

 

Awesome location to hike. Enjoy the hiking ! 


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#8 NAV

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 09:18 AM

 

 

I see nothing but wide swing chop, creating whipsaws. Market is flat at 2770 for the last 12 days. This kind of action would be good for futures but bad for options. Probably going to bounce eventually but could go sideways another month to work off the oversold, 2770 seems to be a magnet.

 

If 2710 holds, VIX will collapse and a low volatile uptrend will resume. If 2710 breaks, i agree with you that there will high volatile swings, more suited for intraday traders.

 

What number do you have for an upside breakout to occur?

 

 

If we get a retest without breaking 2710 and my ST signal turns to buy, then i can confidently say the next IT leg up has begun. First things first. Let's see how the retest goes.

 

Right now my focus is on the ST sell signal and try to milk as much as possible out of the trade.


Edited by NAV, 22 October 2018 - 09:19 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#9 CLK

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 09:43 AM

Day trades only market, closed all my puts for now. Meaningless chop.