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Catching Falling Knives or Is The Worst Over? $7 trillion lost in world markets


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 06:33 AM

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Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Ouch! Nearly $7tn wiped off world stock mkt index MSCI World since the Feb correction.

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Very impressive bounce after the lows just before 4pm EST yesterday.

Looking at my hourly charts, the NQ low was 6786. It has now climbed all the way to 6923 as I write this, almost 2%!

ES low was 2652 and it is now 2686, an estimated 1.25% increase.

 

So, have we seen the worst and it's time to buy? 

Or is it ore like catching falling knives in a futile and costly attempt to pick lows? 

 

Significant technical damage was done during the past few trading sessions so it would take more than one day to repair it and restore the bullish tode to the market. First target is that well-watched 200ma and a VIX hourly seel.  I still don't regard VIX 25 and VXX 39 as capitulation so my most likely scenario is repeated bounces within this down trend until SPX closes above the 200ma, a VIX spike above 30, VXX above 50, and extreme negative sentiment, that is, blood on the streets. 

 

Those CHIP stocks have been slaughtered ! I am looking at likely candidates for my IT Portoflio. Not buying APPLE again, not buying any of the FANGs, maybe I will look at those POT sotcks that have also been taken to the woodshed. 

 

I am also looking at QQQ calls (yeah, CALLS!) to profit from any year-end rally into January.

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 06:35 AM

This could be a good buy, but when? 

 

Canary in the coalmine: #BlackRock shares now down 36% from Jan high!

 

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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 06:38 AM

Will it stop falling? Deutsche Bank shares keep falling, now at lowest level since 1980s.

 

Then, there is the ECB meeting today

 

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#4 dTraderB

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 07:41 AM

Where we are now, relative to important highs and lows of 2018: DAILY SPX since January. 

MInor support at yesterday's close; Next major resistance @ 2710

At least three major targets below.

Note 20ma has crossed below 50 & 100ma; 200ma has still not turned decisivel turned down

 

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#5 K Wave

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 08:58 AM

Watchin' AAPL closely here today....After washing out to 215 at the close yesterday, it settled in at 217 overnight.

 

I think one more breach of 217 would open the floodgates...but if it somehow holds the intraday low just made at 217, then stick save here still possible...

 

Hourly chart looking ready to ribbon roll down...but until it busts 217, bulls still only mostly dead...

219-220 should be trouble on the upside today. If it plows through that, then stick save scenario starts to look more possible...

 

About a 25 point air gap in the daily AAPL chart if 217 doesn't hold later today...

 

And should 190 get taken out, then the whole party is likely over....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 K Wave

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 09:03 AM

QQQ coming up for back test of 170....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 K Wave

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 10:09 AM

Looks like the 220 pivot now set on AAPL...now we see who actually wants the ball....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 10:32 AM

Busier than yesterday! 

 

NQ soaring.....

WAS that the low

 

24 trades so far from 6am to 11:30 am

 

22 NQ

2 VXX



#9 K Wave

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 10:38 AM

Is AAPL making the final "Nessie head" here on 1 min chart?

 

Moment of truth could be dead ahead now.

 

Another dip under 218.40 could spell disaster now....

 

Would not be short if now pushed above 220 again...


Edited by K Wave, 25 October 2018 - 10:40 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 tradesurfer

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Posted 25 October 2018 - 10:58 AM

bearish abcd and bearish butterfly on the 1 minute chart on qqq as we head into lunch hour

 

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