8 replies to this topic

[flyers&divers]

A thought for today:

 

Markets seldom bottom by opening higher from a prominent low so yesterdays low was less likely

the final low of this move. 

We are entering the zone where some of the decisions with a lot of weight 

are made not based on speculative calculations but cascading forced liquidations.

 

On Bloomberg yesterday some prominent market strategist on was mentioning positive divergences in some 

market internals of this swing compared to earlier the year. He forgot to mention the parabolic nature of the move of some symbols.

Once directional movement is measured above normal, in my book, divergences are consolidations. 

If the market or an individual issue blasts through price points of divergences it just accelerates the movement. 

 

They are throwing the babies out with the bath water so it is time to initiate  lists to take positions at some point in some growth industries like Weed,  Cyber Security, etc.

 

Regards

F&D

[Data]

Money has been flowing into defensive sectors for about a week.  For reference, see the Utilities (DJU) and the Consumer Staples (XLP).  Those two are rising the equivalent in percentage terms as the SPX has fallen.  They are heavily represented in the S&P 100 and the Dow Jones.

[fib_1618]

Is The Bottom in?

 

Well, you do have a ton of divergences working for you on this.

 

And then there was these musings in the chat room back on October 9th:

 

2018-10-09 17:44:51 fib1618: so...
2018-10-09 17:45:04 fib1618: let's remain defensive for another couple of days
2018-10-09 17:45:24 fib1618: as we seem to be getting closer and closer to some sort of shake out
2018-10-09 17:46:02 fib1618: the market has this feel about it like it's looking over a cliff, gets nervous, and then jumps back as not to fall
2018-10-09 17:46:30 fib1618: but as long as the trend of money remains negative
2018-10-09 17:46:55 fib1618: eventually it's going to have to take the plunge
2018-10-09 17:47:03 fib1618: anything else?
2018-10-09 17:47:17 thespookyone: Great chat, thx
2018-10-09 17:48:38 fib1618: I keep looking at the 24th as the probable end of this sequence
2018-10-09 17:48:50 fib1618: just my spidey sense talking
2018-10-09 17:48:51 thespookyone: cool
2018-10-09 17:49:40 fib1618: so far, though, we're getting pretty much as expected
2018-10-09 17:49:52 fib1618: given the indicators we're working with

 

Fib

[redfoliage2]

There is a good chance for a bottom here, but bottoms can only be known from a rear mirror........

[Data]

If you give enough dates for a bottom, you'll get one.

[fib_1618]

There is a good chance for a bottom here, but bottoms can only be known from a rear mirror........

 

Unless you have the right tools to call one 2 weeks in advance...to the very day.

 

That is what separates the "be's" from the "wannabe's"...something inherent that can't be taught.

 

Fib

[redfoliage2]

It's going to be an inside day candlestick on the three major indices, a sign for a reversal after long down trend.

[tsharp]

I had this epiphany today... it seems a valid possibility that the entire wave-c:iv is itself an ending diagonal triangle... this would account for a strong push upward into 10.31, as well as another decent drop to end in what I think will likely be a truncated wave-e:c:iv... 

 

So the correction is not quite over, but I think it a strong possibility that the low of the move is in... watching.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ryanoo]

inside day = indecision; 

After hours, QQQ -2.3%, SPY -1.2%, AMZN -9%.