13 replies to this topic

[CLK]

I think a big rally or break down is in the next couple days. I have been holding crash puts and hedging 8 points in the money for a few days. It 's been too weak to break out and too many buyers on every marginal new low. It's too dangerous to go pure long because I have to buy deep in the money only to get 25-30% but risk a lot more on the downside. No, I am just trading safe for now around break even and hoping for a big sustained move soon.

 

A break of 2600 should lead to 100's more down, but since the gap down's always fill, the selling might be about over for awhile.

[CLK]

For the bear case:

 

SPX equal weight seems to be leading down here as price didn't make a lower low, previous instance is marked.

 

 

[CLK]

[tradesurfer]

Percent below 200 DMA seems to need to hit 10 or 15 before we hit true bottom

 

http://schrts.co/b1VCxU

[Data]

Positive seasonality kicks off next week

 

http://www.stockmark...ent-letter.html

 

Share buyback period starts in earnest after Apple reports since they comprise a quarter of all share buybacks.

 

German DAX and Italy IT30 are leading the decline.   German DAX normally rallies in October and may have broken its huge head-and-shoulder top..

 

https://charts.equit...-seasonal-chart

 

My indicators are neutral.  This is a very unusual market for the last year because of the high market concentration in a handful of stocks.  The breadth is weak on 1-3% down days but it doesn't constitute a washout.

[redfoliage2]

Positive seasonality kicks off next week

 

http://www.stockmark...ent-letter.html

 

Share buyback period starts in earnest after Apple reports since they comprise a quarter of all share buybacks.

 

German DAX and Italy IT30 are leading the decline.   German DAX normally rallies in October and may have broken its huge head-and-shoulder top..

 

https://charts.equit...-seasonal-chart

 

My indicators are neutral.  This is a very unusual market for the last year because of the high market concentration in a handful of stocks.  The breadth is weak on 1-3% down days but it doesn't constitute a washout.

DAX should bounce up from here.............

[CLK]

First big gap up since the top, island bottom, US probably matches EU 2% at minimum. I doubt it fills this time.

Looks like the crash setup is done.

 

 

 

https://invst.ly/90gss

Edited by CLK, 29 October 2018 - 07:16 AM.

[CLK]

So far all we got is a clean fill of Friday's gap down. Stalled right there.

[redfoliage2]

Gaps and gap filling are parts of a bottom-making process.   I'd not be surprised if the current dip from the earlier spike-up gets bought in the afternoon.  I see the market is going higher into the mid-term..................

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 October 2018 - 10:46 AM.

[CLK]

Doubled up on puts at 2688, this looks very bearish.