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A very bullish wave count: little room for error


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#1 senorBS

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 11:42 AM

While I will admit some stuff is "fuzzy" here I do like what I see. I have GDX and HUI as having a daily 5 up from 9-11 to 10-23, not perfect but that last spike to the 10-23 highs does look like a 5th wave to me. I think the wave 2 declines possibly ended on 10/31 just below the 50-day MA, from the 10-31 lows to 11-5 highs I view as an hourly 5 up (smaller degree wave i) and then have todays decline ending or close to ending a wave "ii" correction right at the area of the 50-day MA. So I like the case for 1/2 and i/ii's to the upside as the potential bullish count, not a lot of room for error from here but I do like this count a good bit, we see and should have an answer soon as there is not much room to the downside IF this count is going to play out

 

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#2 Smithy

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 01:05 PM

Senor, my non EW stuff supports your count; in my world gold has to get off the dime anytime from now to a week from now.

 

The big moves in gold (1968-1980 and 2000-2011) occurred when the stock market more or less went sideways. I think stocks are headed north from here so I'm a little nervous about an extended gold bull, but we could get wage-push inflation that feeds both stocks and gold.



#3 senorBS

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 01:28 PM

Senor, my non EW stuff supports your count; in my world gold has to get off the dime anytime from now to a week from now.

 

The big moves in gold (1968-1980 and 2000-2011) occurred when the stock market more or less went sideways. I think stocks are headed north from here so I'm a little nervous about an extended gold bull, but we could get wage-push inflation that feeds both stocks and gold.

I think S&P and DJI have big and pretty clear 5 -wave declines from their all-time highs and IMO are now on the verge of ending abc rallies, so at the least I am expecting another big wave down to below previous lows, just my take

 

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#4 dharma

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 06:08 PM

 

Senor, my non EW stuff supports your count; in my world gold has to get off the dime anytime from now to a week from now.

 

The big moves in gold (1968-1980 and 2000-2011) occurred when the stock market more or less went sideways. I think stocks are headed north from here so I'm a little nervous about an extended gold bull, but we could get wage-push inflation that feeds both stocks and gold.

I think S&P and DJI have big and pretty clear 5 -wave declines from their all-time highs and IMO are now on the verge of ending abc rallies, so at the least I am expecting another big wave down to below previous lows, just my take

 

Senor

 

that is what i see also . hadik has this rally ending the 19-23of november.     yes there is only one way out of the debt trap ..................inflate or die.    a question i have is when does the fed blink.  they are raising rates and qt cutting the debt.  this will stagnate the economy. its only a question of when and what happens between now and then. 

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#5 Russ

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:44 PM

just listened to an Erik Hadik interview on youtube, he is the cycles expert that predicted the huge rally in early 2016, he thinks that was wave A, and we just saw B finish in August so he is looking for a C wave to continue up for a year or two, which is what my oscillator (same one that predicted the low in aug) is projecting.    


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



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#6 senorBS

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 08:51 PM

just listened to an Erik Hadik interview on youtube, he is the cycles expert that predicted the huge rally in early 2016, he thinks that was wave A, and we just saw B finish in August so he is looking for a C wave to continue up for a year or two, which is what my oscillator (same one that predicted the low in aug) is projecting.    

Totally agree Russ, the 2016 rally was a 5 up wave 1 or A IMO, so eventually when this wave 2 or B ends we should get a rally above the 2016 highs. I really don't care beyond that at this time and we can revisit the discussion once the 2016  highs are exceeded. 

 

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#7 Russ

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 09:33 PM

 

just listened to an Erik Hadik interview on youtube, he is the cycles expert that predicted the huge rally in early 2016, he thinks that was wave A, and we just saw B finish in August so he is looking for a C wave to continue up for a year or two, which is what my oscillator (same one that predicted the low in aug) is projecting.    

Totally agree Russ, the 2016 rally was a 5 up wave 1 or A IMO, so eventually when this wave 2 or B ends we should get a rally above the 2016 highs. I really don't care beyond that at this time and we can revisit the discussion once the 2016  highs are exceeded. 

 

Senor

 

Yes and that should extend for at least a year theoretically, the short term is more problematic maybe until Dec?


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#8 gannman

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Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:10 AM

there is a head and shoulders pattern in the xau which points to about 55 so i think we are 

 

headed down fwiw


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#9 dougie

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Posted 10 November 2018 - 11:48 AM

ouch



#10 senorBS

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Posted 11 November 2018 - 06:40 PM

short term is tough with Friday's decline,I still like the case that downside is limited, however there is a case that the Sep lows might be tested in stuff like GDXJ, a large and sstained decline on Monday would add odds to that possibility IMO

 

Senor