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Bullish Consolidation or Reversal ? SPX 2770/75 critical level


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 07:22 AM

This could be a bullish consolidation before surging higher or the top of this awesome rally. 

There is that well-traversed SPX 2785 to 2820 zone that has created and destroyed many rallies and declines in the past.

Market has to get out of this, up or down. 

Market also has to get out of that huge daily bar on Wednesday; a daily close higher will negate the current swing hi, while a lower close will re-establish the ST bearish case. 

 

My VIX system is on a BUY after the close yesterday (equivalent to an SPX sell), but unless SPX closes below 2775, the ST & IT buy are still in effect. Large daily ranges result in ENTRY & EXIT points further away from the current market level.

Watch that 200ma at SPX 2764....

 

spx-nov8.png



#2 alexnewbee

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 07:49 AM

well, I am short from 2800


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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 07:58 AM

S&P 500: Pop and Drop?By, Simon Maierhofer
Read more at https://www.ispyetf....mhs7ZVHfFDot.99

 

MW%201_16.png

 

Up side Target (almost) Captured

 

Since the up side target has almost been reached, it’s time to discuss the odds of a potentially scary ‘pop and drop’ scenario.

 

The October 28 Profit Radar Report stated that: “The projection (see chart above) provides a visual of the ideal path ahead. The upcoming bounce (either wave 2 or B) should reach 2,830 and perhaps higher (wave B could even bring new all-time highs), followed by another leg down.”

 

At the time, it was not important whether the bounce is wave 2 or B. Why? Both had the same minimum target (around 2,830). Now that the S&P is close to the minimum target, it’s important to know the difference.

 

Wave 2 vs Wave B

  • Wave 2: If this bounce is wave 2, it is not allowed to exceed the September high (2,940.91), and should ideally stop in the 2,812 - 2,869 range (61.8 - 78.6% Fibonacci retracement). Once complete, the wave 2 rally is followed by a strong wave 3 decline (along with waves 4 and 5).
  • Wave B: If this bounce is wave B, it could, but does not have to, reach new all-time highs.

The chart below includes a number of updated resistance/target levels: 

 

 

image: http://www.ispyetf.c...11718spxD_1.png

aa11718spxD_1.png

 

  • 2,830: Fibonacci projection level going back to 2002
  • 2,853: EWT wave A = C
  • 2,869: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
  • 2,880 & 2,921: Open chart gaps, which tend to act like magnets for price

As of Wednesday's close, the S&P ended near over-bought, but without bearish divergences. This suggests short-term weakness should be followed by at least one more high.

 

Conclusion

 

It appears that at minimum another down/up sequence is required before a larger drop becomes an option.

 

Based on seasonality, continued gains and new all-time highs are possible.

 

I will be monitoring breadth, momentum and sentiment for extremes, internal weakness, or divergences to assess the odds of a serious reversal to the down side.

Read more at https://www.ispyetf....mhs7ZVHfFDot.99



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:00 AM

Will crude pull down equities? or will the inverse relationship resume? (crude down, stocks up...)

 

U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel this morning after entering a bear market yesterday, falling more than 20% from their recent high. Global benchmark Brent crude, meanwhile, fell below $70, nearing its own bear milestone.

More volatility for crude prices could be ahead. U.S. oil rig-count data, viewed as a proxy for activity in the energy sector, is due this afternoon. We also have inflation data on the way, with producer price figures on tap.

Meantime, our Michael Wursthorn explains why asset managers are moving to increase their exposure to stocks even as analysts warn that recent turbulence is likely to continue.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:04 AM

Key Events

The U.S. producer-price index for October, out at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to rise 0.3% from a month earlier. Excluding food and energy, the inflation gauge is expected to climb 0.2%.

The University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment index for November, released at 10 a.m., is expected to slip to 97.0 from 98.6 in October.

The New York Fed's John Williams and the Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker speak at the New York Fed at 8:30 a.m., and Fed vice chairman for supervision Randal Quarles speaks on stress testing and financial regulation at 9:05 a.m. 

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count is released at 1 p.m.

What We've Heard on the Street

“Anybody who thought the Federal Reserve might scale back its plans for future rate increases after all the recent turmoil in the stock market has to be disappointed.”

—Heard on the Street columnist Justin Lahart

 



#6 12SPX

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:38 AM

Thanks for all the great info!!!yes.gif



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:16 AM

...and the Lord said to rest for a few minutes, from about 5 minutes before the market opens to about 10 minutes afterwards....

 

Looking to take some off the table re: QQQ puts, but not too hastily.

 

Bias NQ short but will trade whatever way it goes. 

 

Maybe a VXX trade but difficult to focus on more than two trading instruments.



#8 zoropb

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:20 AM

good stuff db, thanks.


Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:58 AM

Will buy another 500 GE shares today

 

Closed 4 QQQ puts. Looks like I will be also daytrading QQQ options today

 

SPX testing 2785

 

2775.70 is the critical zone of  support



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 09 November 2018 - 10:00 AM

Thanks, Zoro