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Trending day-trade in the SPY options


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 06:16 PM

From the link:

 

 

This was one those great trending days that goes one way all day.

 

And by the way, the market, with today’s hard sell down, is now wildly oversold so the chance of bounce tomorrow is very high. I say that chance is about 85%, but that’s mostly a guess based on the past six months market action. No telling how high. There’s also about a 75% chance the bounce will be a one-day wonder.

 

For further discussion and the charts:

 

TRENDING DAY 32 FOR A 166% GAIN


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 AK2

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 06:42 PM

Looking for a counter trend up move ~40Pts (61.8%)



#3 beta

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 06:49 PM

Fill the downside gaps, then bounce back to 1% above today's close.   


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#4 ryanoo

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 07:38 PM

daily is not oversold at all.  Its just getting started.



#5 tradesurfer

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 07:43 PM

The futures are actually down after the close for a change

#6 q4wer

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 07:49 PM

From the link:

 

 

This was one those great trending days that goes one way all day.

 

And by the way, the market, with today’s hard sell down, is now wildly oversold so the chance of bounce tomorrow is very high. I say that chance is about 85%, but that’s mostly a guess based on the past six months market action. No telling how high. There’s also about a 75% chance the bounce will be a one-day wonder.

 

For further discussion and the charts:

 

TRENDING DAY 32 FOR A 166% GAIN

how did you smell the down side trading day like today ?   I hope that you post ahead of time,  and give a possibility in percentage of how a trading day may develop



#7 diogenes227

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Posted 12 November 2018 - 08:41 PM

 

From the link:

 

 

This was one those great trending days that goes one way all day.

 

And by the way, the market, with today’s hard sell down, is now wildly oversold so the chance of bounce tomorrow is very high. I say that chance is about 85%, but that’s mostly a guess based on the past six months market action. No telling how high. There’s also about a 75% chance the bounce will be a one-day wonder.

 

For further discussion and the charts:

 

TRENDING DAY 32 FOR A 166% GAIN

how did you smell the down side trading day like today ?   I hope that you post ahead of time,  and give a possibility in percentage of how a trading day may develop

 

 

I didn't smell the down side. I did have the NYMO going down coming into the day but that didn't really matter in this case.  What mattered today, like every day, are the day-trading triggers for entries and exits that read the day whichever way it's going. Most of time these get chopped (sometimes to hell) but the chop is just one of those things the market does and has so far been irrelevant in the face of trending days like today.

 

My guess on those percentages is based on how many times in the past six months the Nasdaq has fallen this far, generally this fast - seven times and bounced the next day six. times (I do have a chart for this which I toss into the blog once in a while). That, of course, is not a large sampling. Just something to keep in mind for tomorrow. The market can do whatever it wants (it can even crash) but I'm expecting a bounce. We will all know pretty quickly if that's wrong.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."