8 replies to this topic

[RagingSpartan]

Small and mid cap death cross.

[RagingSpartan]

Lots of investors went long on the best 6 months cross and presidential cycle buy. Lots of traders went long for the thanksgiving/year end rally. Lots of traders went long when alot of the bottom spotter indicators triggered a few weeks ago.

My expectation is as each group starts to realize these trades are not working they will start selling. I expect chop with lots of surprise down days as we trend lower into year end.

[MDurkin]

Lots of investors went long on the best 6 months cross and presidential cycle buy. Lots of traders went long for the thanksgiving/year end rally. Lots of traders went long when alot of the bottom spotter indicators triggered a few weeks ago.

My expectation is as each group starts to realize these trades are not working they will start selling. I expect chop with lots of surprise down days as we trend lower into year end.

I'm still on the fence but in cash. Watching UTIL on a monthly basis to confirm a bear- not there yet. You have been right so far agreeing with https://pugsma.com/l...rm-sp-500-view/. Let's see what happens when the gap is filled on the SPX.

Edited by MDurkin, 13 November 2018 - 02:18 PM.

[fib_1618]

Lots of investors went long on the best 6 months cross and presidential cycle buy. Lots of traders went long for the thanksgiving/year end rally. Lots of traders went long when alot of the bottom spotter indicators triggered a few weeks ago.

My expectation is as each group starts to realize these trades are not working they will start selling. I expect chop with lots of surprise down days as we trend lower into year end.

 

Kudos on your consistency.

 

Keep a watchful eye on breadth and volume ratios...that's where the real story is.

 

Fib

[relax]

i dont understand - why start a thread with no arguments, no charts and be consistent/persistent about it - i truly think some think that making message board headlines could make the market go in the opposite direction so they would be pleased not having any skin in the game as the market moves in the opposite direction of what they want

 

this market needs a new high - above 2940 - if not this year then next, that is my message board call ;-)

[LMF]

This market is going to start pointing toward the Dec 19 FOMC meeting and whether we get another rate hike.  Going back to the 2004 rate hike cycle, there is no precedent for continued rate hikes when the RUT small cap stocks have deteriorated this badly (death cross, etc).  If Powell can't see this right now, that's definitely a problem.  If the Fed wants to keep quiet about things until the FOMC meeting occurs, that's also going to be a problem I think.  What we should be seeing is the Fed starting to telegraph the rate hike pause.  This is the test to see if Powell can figure it out correctly or not.      

[relax]

Sp 500 seems to be most important for the fed..if sp can be pushed up by 100-200 the weeks before the fed meeting then they can proceed with their agenda...whatever happens the months after the hike does not seem to matter..so the conspiracy would be that they force Trump to make a deal..or some other way make sure sp is around 2800 ish at the next meeting

[LMF]

Perhaps, but they let the SPX get away on the close today.....20 day EMA now looking worse below the 200 day MA for 11 sessions in a row now.  Today was a 4 star failure by the bulls to get it back.  The overhead gap on the VIX chart is in sight.....

[RagingSpartan]

Once Apple breaks it's 200 dma it will confirm the overall market bearishness.