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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:24 PM
Well before you get too bullish I think it would be a good idea to look at the action in Treasuries (TLT) and junk bonds (HYG). I know you guys disdain fundamentals, but the message is definitely not positive for stocks. Potential for a liquidity crisis in junk.
Edited by libertas, 16 November 2018 - 02:25 PM.
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Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:27 PM
Well before you get too bullish I think it would be a good idea to look at the action in Treasuries (TLT) and junk bonds (HYG). I know you guys disdain fundamentals, but the message is definitely not positive for stocks. Potential for a liquidity crisis in junk.
agree
https://stockcharts....id=p45545342106
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:41 PM
As it says in Livermore's book, "ya gotta put 'em up to sell 'em." And that's what today's market action is all about. Just watch the TICK and TRIN.
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:57 PM
looking a lot like a bear flag. may have to close longs at VIX = 18 which should mark the top of the channel
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 02:59 PM
Barring last hour wipeout, looks like we are going to end the week with Industrials as the Lone Survivor above 200 day MA.
Unless we get strong push up early next week, things could still fall apart...
One thing perhaps in the bulls favor here is the extended period of time around 10 on the Fear/Greed indicator. (scroll to bottom chart)
"Usually" that leads to IT rally....
https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:14 PM
Well for all the selling we have had, there has not been anything that resembles capitulation. It's been quiet - too quiet. IMO we need to hear the phones ringing off the hook at Fidelity etc. to set up a good rally.
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 03:36 PM
With the lower high it made this week VIX is going to 15 or even below for a lower low next week...............
Edited by redfoliage2, 16 November 2018 - 03:43 PM.
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 06:59 PM
Market is directionless at the moment... It could pull either way next week... I look at about 20 charts and they are mixed on prediction of which way this will fly.. Sigh!!!!
Member
Posted 16 November 2018 - 09:17 PM
There are still about 5 or 6 trading days left in a potential crash window.
We have Mercury Retrograde today after completing this 2 day rally.
There was also Mercury Retrograde on October 17th, 1929 at almost the same juncture in the market (after a mini rally) where macd was positioned and right before a 30% 5 day drop in the market.
If we get a gap down to start next week and an macd bearish downside crossover, then I would say Katie bar the door, all hands on deck !
Member
Posted 18 November 2018 - 08:28 AM
After reviewing the charts and numbers. I have spx at 4 to 1 this "neutral spot" resolves down this week. I can see where it can have some upside to 2765 or less in afterhours, maybe into the morning or we hit the high. the turn for me has to be tomorrow or something else is going on.
Our balance indicator the one that was -491 last week grew to over -600! A jump like this happened right before the Sept 21 top.
Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.
