4 replies to this topic

[LMF]

Some ETFs look just a little bit worse than other investment vehicles right now.....like XHB huh Mr. Powell?   Go ahead and drive it further below the 200 week MA with more rate hikes.  Anyone with eyeballs can see this ain't how you make the economy run in a stable manner.  It's the housing sector stupid.  Remember 2007-2008?  That tune from the wizard of Oz......If I only had a brain.....

[CLK]

Just how high do you want real estate to go, it's already unattainable for most people. Even the foreclosures are ridiculously priced by the banks, I'm out of business flipping, what I could buy for 30k 2 years ago now they want 50k, so now I have to dump 35 in that to maybe make 15k then have to pay tax on it. The global inflationary boom Da Cheif talks about has run it's course, we are in deflationary mode now that will last years, it's about time, regardless what it does to the stock market, I don't care. Do you really think they are going to give the baby boomers another double to retire on, not a chance, they want them to work until they are 75. But the job market is not what it appears, I've never seen it this bad slanted in the employer's favor, there are a ton of applicants to pick from, if employment was so high then how could that be ? I tried for two jobs I'm qualified for, but they won't hire me because I'm in my mid 50's and they would rather hire someone 30, I even worked two weeks at one and did 200% production, if you don't perfectly fit their clique or age demographic then you are out, both places I went to everyone on the shop floor was 25-40 yrs old.

Edited by CLK, 19 November 2018 - 08:06 AM.

[Data]

There is just too much debt being issued.  180 billion dollars in barely 1 month and a half.  There is expected to be another 160-240 billion dollars issued by the end of the quarter.  It is less than in February and March but QE from Europe and Japan is supplying about 80 billion dollars a month less in demand.

Edited by Data, 19 November 2018 - 12:59 PM.

[LMF]

If it was up to me, they get rid of the Fed and let everything re adjust back to whatever normal should be.  Then we can make good judgements about the economy and the various sectors.  But since that's never going to happen in my lifetime,.....I'd rather not have an instant replay of 2009 again where the housing market gets targeted.  Not a good track record when that happens.  Below the 200 week MA is always the right level to tell when it's in the stupid mode.....

[Data]

Homebuilders, semiconductors, transports, oil& gas, and other sectors are highly cyclical.  Even if the recession is very mild, the stocks are prone to losing 50 to 80 percent of their peak values.   Don't get married to these industries, but you have to follow them regularly even if they're in longer cycles than usual.