10 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

This coming week my system indicates that there is a higher than normal risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend on Monday the 19th and Friday the 23rd.  

 

This past week the turn on a closing basis was inside the risk window on Wednesday, but on an hourly basis it was about four hours outside the risk window on Thursday with a nasty draw down Thursday morning, so I think I have to call that a near miss which is only useful in horse-shoes and hand grenades, not the stock market.  

 

For all you cold, damp weather lovers out there, the UK is going on sale again just in time for Christmas. If the current BREXIT deal goes tits up, then who knows how low the pound will go.  If it gets anywhere near parity, or even in the teens, it's a real bargain that can't last long, so grab it if you see it.  Just in case, dust off your mac and wellies. 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

[beta]

Hi Douglas, thanks for sharing your work and insights. 

One question: does the "rusk of a turn or acceleration" mean that both Monday 19th and Friday 23rd follow the same directional trend?   Or can they pivot in opposite directions?

 

TIA.

[Douglas]

In my system the Monday and Friday turn or acceleration events are completely separate and unrelated. They can go in the same or opposite directions.

 

The part of my system that I report here only predicts an elevated risk of a turn, not the direction of the turn.  If the turn fails to appear, an acceleration in the direction of the current trend often occurs due to incorrectly positioned traders following the same signals that I do being forced to reverse their positions.  For example, the current two day trend in the DJIA is up.  My system says that sometime Monday (maybe even in the after hours) the short term trend should reverse down.  If that fails to happen, short traders following the same signals that I am following will be forced to quickly cover accelerating prices higher.  Given that we are entering the Christmas silly season, anything can happen.  Ho, Ho, Ho.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[beta]

Thank you, Douglas.  Very helpful analysis. 

 

Seems like holiday light-trading season gives perfect cover to light a bonfire of shorts, esp. if we start from lower levels.   

 

Big trading opps in both directions coming up.

[bighouse1006]

Thanks for the update!

[Douglas]

I should have noted that the Friday the 23rd risk window extends into Monday the 26th (probably just the a.m.).  I'm so cotton pickin' busy working two part time jobs (retirement in the age of ZIRP)  that I didn't look out into the week after next before I posted. 

 

The next few weeks should determine whether the bulls or the bears have the ball.  Right now its a toss up with the FED playing the role of ref at center court.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[K Wave]

Overnight throwover pattern on NQ not looking so promising for bulls at this point.....

Edited by K Wave, 19 November 2018 - 08:49 AM.

[Waver]

the whole rally from Thursday in the SP, Nas and DOW is very corrective after what truly looks to be an impulse down from the post election's high.

[K Wave]

NQ gettin' hammered...

[Douglas]

Feeling the burn from the turn?  Right on schedule in the risk window.  How long or low is anybody's guess, but below 2675 (ignoring dividends) just about every SPX indexer will be under water for the year.  20% of zero is lousy pay for a year's work managing money (assuming they've already burned through the 2% of principal).  They might be trying to grab a little something before it becomes a big nothing.  On the bullish side of the argument, a Santa Claus rally to bail them out also makes sense if they can figure out a way to give the ole bubble one more good puff. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 19 November 2018 - 11:06 AM.