Bear Update
#1
Posted 19 November 2018 - 03:56 PM
#2
Posted 19 November 2018 - 04:04 PM
I think we bottomed today. Today's selling in Tech was capitulatory.
You will recall that I called a bottom close to 2603, that has still held.
#3
Posted 19 November 2018 - 07:42 PM
Both of you will be proven correct tomorrow IMHO. Short-term move UP, followed by retest by close.
Edited by beta, 19 November 2018 - 07:46 PM.
#4
Posted 19 November 2018 - 10:01 PM
Hmm!!! My charts show we haven't fully broken down yet, so you may be right... But the volume is not capitulatory, and we did see a lack of buyers. On the bear side if we break down we could have a fast move down....
#5
Posted 19 November 2018 - 10:33 PM
Hmm!!! My charts show we haven't fully broken down yet, so you may be right... But the volume is not capitulatory, and we did see a lack of buyers. On the bear side if we break down we could have a fast move down....
Agreed about volume. I wanted to raise the possibility of bottoming action, which still exists. Lots of internal market divergences.
If 2637 breaks on the SPX, I see a potential measured move that will have us trading in a new range between 2200 and 2600. Even though I'm more optimistic on the market than I have been all year, I am still not backing up the truck to buy calls. If the market remains above 2587 by the end of this week, I do plan to buy calls/call-spreads aggressively for a year-end rally starting next week.
#6
Posted 19 November 2018 - 10:54 PM
Dont forget Armstrongs November 21st cycle date... not sure, but perhaps it could mark a spike mini flash crash low....
And then up on Black Friday which has a 75% chance of being an up day...
On the other hand wouldn't that be odd if Black Friday has TWO meanings this year ?