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Bear Update


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#1 RagingSpartan

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 03:56 PM

Tomorrow Oct lows easily.

#2 kaiser soze

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 04:04 PM

I think we bottomed today.  Today's selling in Tech was capitulatory.

 

You will recall that I called a bottom close to 2603, that has still held.  



#3 beta

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 07:42 PM

Both of you will be proven correct tomorrow IMHO.   Short-term move UP, followed by retest by close.   


Edited by beta, 19 November 2018 - 07:46 PM.

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#4 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 10:01 PM

Hmm!!!  My charts show we haven't fully broken down yet, so you may be right...  But the volume is not capitulatory, and we did see a  lack of buyers.    On the bear side if we break down we could have a fast move down....



#5 kaiser soze

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 10:33 PM

Hmm!!!  My charts show we haven't fully broken down yet, so you may be right...  But the volume is not capitulatory, and we did see a  lack of buyers.    On the bear side if we break down we could have a fast move down....

 

Agreed about volume.  I wanted to raise the possibility of bottoming action, which still exists.  Lots of internal market divergences.  

 

If 2637 breaks on the SPX, I see a potential measured move that will have us trading in a new range between 2200 and 2600.  Even though I'm more optimistic on the market than I have been all year, I am still not backing up the truck to buy calls.   If the market remains above 2587 by the end of this week, I do plan to buy calls/call-spreads aggressively for a year-end rally starting next week.



#6 tradesurfer

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Posted 19 November 2018 - 10:54 PM

Dont forget Armstrongs November 21st cycle date...  not sure, but perhaps it could mark a spike mini flash crash low....

 

And then up on Black Friday which has a 75% chance of being an up day...

 

 

On the other hand wouldn't that be odd if Black Friday has TWO meanings this year ? pop.gif