12 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

And Friday, Black Friday, we close limit down

 

And the ALL next week we close down down down maybe a series of limit down days and FULL flush down next week....

 

Is this a completely nutty scenario?

 

It would appear to be so, however, it is the most unexpected scenario I can possibly think of, especially with a close at the highs today.

 

 

The 'tell'  is probably the VIX.  The VIX should be a massive collapse and carnage today gap down collapse.  But that is not happening so far....

 

I am going full short near the close today preparing for a total collapse next week...  (and quite an ugly Friday this week)

 

daily MACD is down, weekly MACD is down, monthly MACD is down, and RSI is under 50 and approaching 30 (and remember that crashes START from the 30 zone)

 

WHO is going full short at the close today at 3:59PM ????  

 

 

 

 

[qqqqtrdr]

This time could be different....  Looking at my charts I have noticed a couple things.....

- There is not a lack of short positions

- Put/Call Ratios 10-days are looking bullish ( OEX and Equity ) - Medium term

- New Lows vs New Highs is not expanding

 

This leads me to believe a large sell off will not happen...   There is not enough optimism for a large sell off.. 

 

I do think US equities are still expensive, but will look closely at car sales and new home sales to see if the market is still strong..

 

Barry

[tradesurfer]

You are probably right.... just some wild speculation on my part....

 

But still.... best time to enter the trade is after a full gap fill near the close today...

 

 

The two tower top formations are *stunning* in their similarity

Edited by tradesurfer, 21 November 2018 - 12:20 PM.

[CLK]

Markets are never that easy, I'm indifferent here, if Friday holds up then could rally into year end.

 

Weekly divergences abound.....

 

Are the Q's really leading ?

 

http://schrts.co/MU4qaS

Edited by CLK, 21 November 2018 - 12:26 PM.

[tradesurfer]

By the way, the other 'tell' is that we are seeing very low beta safe haven stocks such as KO, PG, MCD, JNJ be systematically dismantled.   

 

Capital fled into those low beta stocks as safe havens.. now they are starting to collapse..... when they fall hard the rest of the market will really tank.

[beta]

Surfer, I think your scenario is not out of the question.   So far, bounce is very weak today.  

[gm_general]

I am looking again at SPX MACD. Today numbers are falling off the 12 and 26 EMAs that allow the index to be decently up yet the MACD is down several points (fulfilling current trajectory). The general idea is that the trajectory of the MACD should trend most cases to the one it is currently on. Of course you cannot think much further than the end of your nose here as deviations in what actually happens accumulate day to day. But assuming we are decently up EOD I plugged in some numbers for Friday, and any upside is capped to about 10-12 points. Downside is more open considering MACD is headed down, but likely capped around -20 points. Since it is a slow day I would not expect any extreme action.

[SemiBizz]

Volume is diminishing....

 

Elvis is almost out the back door...

[tradesurfer]

Very bearish action going into the close.... not good

 

Possible Mueller indictments this week.

 

Trump trade meeting a week from this Saturday....

 

A lot can happen in 7 trading days

[tradesurfer]

 

 

Very bearish action going into the close.... not good

 

Possible Mueller indictments this week.

 

Trump trade meeting a week from this Saturday....

 

A lot can happen in 7 trading days