22 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

While we would have loved to have shorted the recent decline, we didn't have much excuse to. The overwhelming weight of the evidence says, "DON'T PANIC!"

 

Here's what we've got:

 

Swing Momentum is still Bullish, despite the weakness.

 

We are on an Options Oscillator Buy.

 

The ITBM and our Breadth Model are both still Bullish.

 

We are still in a Bull Market condition.

 

The Commercial Paper Differential is back in very benevolent territory--nobody is concerned about the financial companies paying their ST debts.

 

This is the very best time of the year to buy, seasonally. Bulls get their Christmas.

 

The Relative VIX is flashing another Buy.

 

 

 

Our Secret Hedge Fund Indicator is flashing a repeat Buy as well.

 

 

 

Now, is it possible that our best stuff isn't working and isn't going to? Sure. This game comes with no guarantees, BUT, it's just not very likely in a Bull Market, which is what we are in. In fact, unexpected weakness just like this is what keeps these indicators relevant and useful year in, and year out. About the time you give up on them, they come roaring on. I think that this is just a head fake to shake weak-handed Bulls loose. I'm actively considering adding to Breadth Model Longs on Friday, even. I'm a Bull.

 

Enjoy the holiday and be safe.

 

Mark

[dougie]

seems to me we have satisfied a number of elelements to say we are now in bear market conditions...but then again you are right far more often than i am

[EntropyModel]

Thanks Mark for clear call. Even if I don't totally agree I appreciate the clarity and FF ..have a great Thanksgiving.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 21 November 2018 - 03:59 PM.

[MikeyG]

Simple divergence on RSI from price has got my attention...

The middle class still has not fully realized their tax cut....wait until the vast majority does their taxes this year, they are going to be pleasantly surprised...that extra money will juice things up...

[pdx5]

Simple divergence on RSI from price has got my attention...

The middle class still has not fully realized their tax cut....wait until the vast majority does their taxes this year, they are going to be pleasantly surprised...that extra money will juice things up...

The middle tax cut was already  incorporated in lower tax withholdings, and has already been spent. 

I am just going by how my kids are operating their finances. I have the tax software for 2018, but have

not computed taxes because I am waiting for year end financial data from the brokers. 1st week in January

I will have computed taxes for both categories, retired and investing  , working and spending 

As for Mark's prognosis, that makes sense because market is oversold and will get a bounce next.

Edited by pdx5, 23 November 2018 - 04:54 PM.

[tsharp]

From my perspective, 2018 has been nearly a year long corrective fractal - a running zig zag (5-3-5) that I think will be wrapping up in 2-4 weeks...

 

• Wave-a took 67-trading-days (TD)/97-calendar-days (CD)…
• Wave-b took 106-TD (1.618a)/153-CD…
• If wave-c  takes .776a, in terms of time, it would take 52-TD/72-CD – completing sometime on or near 12/14/18…
• If wave-c  takes .886a, in terms of time, it would take 59-TD/83-CD – completing sometime on or near 12/25/18..
• If wave-c = wave-a, in terms of time, it would take 67-TD/97-CD – completing sometime on or near 01/04/19…

If this fractal sequence plays out as I’m suggesting here, wave-d will push upward to the ~2800 range, then wave-e will pull back to the ~2700 range on or about one of the dates above, and I sort of lean towards the .886 Fibonacci date of ~12/25/18, then a “Santa Clause rally" would take the SP00s back upwards, and in 2019, with this year-long correction over, they will move upward to new ATHs, and eventually move upward in wave-v:5:V to the ~3600 range in some 18-24 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

From Wednesday's close:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by tsharp, 23 November 2018 - 07:15 PM.

[MikeyG]

 

Simple divergence on RSI from price has got my attention...

The middle class still has not fully realized their tax cut....wait until the vast majority does their taxes this year, they are going to be pleasantly surprised...that extra money will juice things up...

The middle tax cut was already  incorporated in lower tax withholdings, and has already been spent. 

I am just going by how my kids are operating their finances. I have the tax software for 2018, but have

not computed taxes because I am waiting for year end financial data from the brokers. 1st week in January

 

 

 

The standard deduction and child tax credit has doubled among other things....

 

[Waver]

The standard deduction is already incorporated into everyones pay check.
Child tax credit isnt.

There are Way Less deductions available to the tax payers now so that the rich corporations can get more money. Btw they already had record profits and cash on hand.

These overall less deductions are going to hit home come tax time.

[pdx5]

 

 

 

 

 The standard deduction and child tax credit has doubled among other things....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oh for sure there was a tax cut for most working folks. Lot of that was already reflected in payroll tax withholding.

They also removed some substantial  local tax deductions. My main point was that most people will not

get a much larger tax refund check in the mail from IRS because of the smaller payroll deductions all year long.

And that means I do not  expect any serious increase of cash in taxpayers pockets after they file.

The stimulus effect of tax cut has largely been consumed already. Working members in my family have already spent it.

 

Since I am retired and have no paychecks, I might see a slight reduction in taxes compared to last year.

Edited by pdx5, 23 November 2018 - 09:17 PM.

[LMF]

There's still easy money to be made on the downside with this market in the current configuration.  Although I don't expect it to stay that way by the time we get into December.  TQQQ is still relatively deep in a sell configuration all the way up to the 60 minute chart.  It went to a sell on Nov 13 and still hasn't started recovering to a mixed bag configuration yet.....8 sessions now.  The speed on the downward side on the daily chart has been excessive, and the repair is going to take longer I think.  Finally filling the overhead VIX gap on Nov 20 has helped.....good if we don't get anymore overhead gaps to worry about.  Bullish cup formations on the 60 min chart can be predicted a mile away.....when the right side is at a higher price than the left side.  There's no other way to do it for the bulls.....