2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

I do realize that an 18 - 24 week soft cycle low is not too interesting to the day traders on this thread, but hopefully a frame of reference is of some use.  The rough cycle low is due between October 29 and December 14.  Although that window is wide enough to drive a tank through, it is a very reliable cycle stretching back years.  The reason I mention it is that the risk window today, the 23rd of November, and the risk windows on the 3rd and 6th of December are the "strongest" risk windows within that cycle turn window according to my system.  Pick your own poison, but the odds would appear to favor an important low near one of those three dates.  Of course, if you are in the bear market camp, you may want to consider that this low will simply be one of several in a stair step down into the valley of the shadow on the long road to Eldorado.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[gm_general]

What I would be looking for is if the SPX MACD contacted the bottom support line to form a 2nd "W" bottom. Of course if it manages to get there and it breaks below that line look out (I would think that is less likely at this time).

[Douglas]

GM_General, what you currently have in your chart is an MACD which is positively diverging with SPX which is bullish. Better with a triple divergence, but beggars can't be choosers.  The Black Friday buying panic at Walmart might spread to Wall Street before Monday gets well underway if my risk window is worth its salt.  

 

Regards,

Douglas