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If Santa's rally is coming to town...


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 02:15 AM

From the link:

 

 

This should be a rally all the way to Christmas and possibly a bit beyond.

 

Why?

 

Because the market has been pounded hard to the downside since, in some index cases, early October. But more importantly short-term and long-term breadth, measured by the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index (see the chart for today below), has simultaneously given buy signals for tomorrow’s, Tuesday’s, open. And they have done it with a telling divergence – see on the chart how deep the breadth plunge was on the lows in late October, and how the breadth numbers failed to confirm the price lows at the same levels last week.

 

For he chart and more discussion:

 

SANTA'S RALLY


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 diogenes227

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Posted 28 November 2018 - 01:15 PM

And once again news comes along to agree with the McClellan Oscillator.

 

TQQQ up 8+ percent since yesterday's open.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#3 NAV

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Posted 28 November 2018 - 01:19 PM

Good call !


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#4 zoropb

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Posted 28 November 2018 - 05:47 PM

yep good call.


Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.


#5 diogenes227

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Posted 28 November 2018 - 08:29 PM

From the link:

 

 

So what now?

 

Both SPY and TQQQ are up more than two standard deviations of an average advance (“fast and furious”) and SPY is about to smack into an obvious down trend line (see the chart below). This is not sustainable. It is likely too much too soon. In addition my nifty-50 stock list has 45 stocks on buys (this current turn to the upside started with 39 of those 50 stocks on sells). Consequently, it’s likely the general market will either go sideways for a time now or take a quick dip…maybe only one day. Given past history, those who did not jump on the buy signals yesterday are probably itching to buy any dip so the rally should go on. Only 11 of my 50 stocks are overbought. Usually there will be many more of them overbought before this upswing stalls out completely.

 

For more discussion and an updated chart:

 

THE BEAR MARKET RALLY RAPIDLY RISES


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#6 diogenes227

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Posted 03 December 2018 - 09:27 AM

From the link:

 

 

So what now?

 

Both SPY and TQQQ are up more than two standard deviations of an average advance (“fast and furious”) and SPY is about to smack into an obvious down trend line (see the chart below). This is not sustainable. It is likely too much too soon. In addition my nifty-50 stock list has 45 stocks on buys (this current turn to the upside started with 39 of those 50 stocks on sells). Consequently, it’s likely the general market will either go sideways for a time now or take a quick dip…maybe only one day. Given past history, those who did not jump on the buy signals yesterday are probably itching to buy any dip so the rally should go on. Only 11 of my 50 stocks are overbought. Usually there will be many more of them overbought before this upswing stalls out completely.

 

For more discussion and an updated chart:

 

THE BEAR MARKET RALLY RAPIDLY RISES

 

From the link above:

 

 

If I had to guess, I’d pick the 281 neighborhood as a place where the SPY may settle this trip up (see the chart). Maybe even a bit higher. It may not take long or it may chop up until January. After that all indications are we have not seen the eventual lows of this bear.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."