911 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

not really liking the weak gold stock action here with gold within 3-4 bucks of a major new rally high, also if gold makes a new high it may be a thrust out of a contracting tri and a "completion" pattern to the upside near term at least. Somethings gotta give here, either miners start movin sharply higher or this action could signal an impending gold top near 1300, I exited NEM and a few other things and am now totally out (a buy signal?) I can always change my mind quickly but something just does not seem right here (perhaps its my stomach?), rather watch for now, as always DYODD

 

Senor

[Smithy]

Senor, yes the gold stocks performance is dismal.

 

Sometimes I wonder. Suppose the Fed approached me and said "Here's a budget of a billion dollars. We'd like you to keep the gold price down." What would I do? Can't put on a ginormous futures position, I'd only have to buy it back eventually which would defeat the purpose. I don't have any stocks of physical gold to sell into the market, I'd have to buy them first, again self defeating. It seems that the only option is for me to short the hell out of the gold stocks. So I ask myself if that is happening.

 

The next question is why would gold go up? That is easy, CBs, Russia,China, India are buying like crazy. That means sooner or later a shortage of the physical product and price must rise. So I hope one day my gold shares will catch up with bullion...

 

Comments welcome, these are only my thoughts during the long and lonely reaches of the night.

 

[/url]

[dharma]

gold has been lackluster in dollar terms  , but in 72 countries it hit new highs https://www.zerohedg...h-72-currencies

sowing the seeds of inflation china has just pushed through a new stimulus package and india is about to do the same http://newsonair.com/Main-News-Details.aspx?id=358096 this is significant when you consider they are the 2 largest gold buyers in the world   did some light buying on weakness in some jrs  w/ the takeover of 2 large majors. i expect alot of mergers in 19  it is less expensive for majors to takeover these small companies then to do the exploration themselves

dharma

Edited by dharma, 16 January 2019 - 12:37 PM.

[dougie]

miners hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it.

 

Issue more worthless paper and create dilution

 

take a look sometime at market caps , not share price

[dharma]

1300 was hit and is round # resistance.  maybe the institutions and big buyers are skeptical here that gold will break 1300 or maybe they are waiting to buy after the breakout. miners are not leading they are lagging.  its been my concern for weeks now. so i held off buying. i only bought back the midas shares i sold. i dont have answers i have questions. i do have what should be the start of an upmove next week. if that doesnt materialize i bail on my trading positions

here is mcewens take on the big merger. https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/2235/2019-01-15/Randgold-Got-A-Better-Deal-Rob-McEwen-On-Newmont-Goldcorp-Merger#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DKitco-News  he was ceo of gg and was the one who brought them to prominence

dharma

[senorBS]

I almost missed this Goldcorp news release on 4th qtr production/costs, they got back on track after their awful 3rd qtr (which caused the tank to 8.50 area) suggesting their growth/cost plan is back on track, if so then this IMO is really a steal for Nem, I sold Nem this morning and bot some of it back late session after reading this, very lightly long now overall with my late session activity

https://finance.yaho...-130601625.html

 

Senor

[senorBS]

1300 was hit and is round # resistance.  maybe the institutions and big buyers are skeptical here that gold will break 1300 or maybe they are waiting to buy after the breakout. miners are not leading they are lagging.  its been my concern for weeks now. so i held off buying. i only bought back the midas shares i sold. i dont have answers i have questions. i do have what should be the start of an upmove next week. if that doesnt materialize i bail on my trading positions

here is mcewens take on the big merger. https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/2235/2019-01-15/Randgold-Got-A-Better-Deal-Rob-McEwen-On-Newmont-Goldcorp-Merger#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DKitco-News  he was ceo of gg and was the one who brought them to prominence

dharma

Interesting, he did not go into any detail but if GG appears back on track as appears with their 20/20/20 plan (see my other post on their news release) after that awful qtr 3,if so then NEM IMO bot about as good as you can price wise, I think both merger deals will be good for both companies, GOLD has more "location" risk while NEM/GG a good bit less

 

Here is a poster comment I picked up somewhere else - thought it interesting, take it FWIW

 

"GG released their 4Q production results this morning, and it's VERY good news for NEM. GG produced 630,000oz of gold, that will boost NEM's production of 1.29 million oz. up to about 1.92million oz per quarter, an increase of over 48%! Last quarter, 3Q, NEM's AISC's were $927. Compare that to GG's, which are about $850 (and decreasing). GG adds a whole new pipeline to NEM already existing reserves, and NEM gets all this, for about .65c on the dollar. Goldberg has the Midas Touch, picking up GG on the cheap."

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 16 January 2019 - 04:28 PM.

[dharma]

 

 

 

i believe this chart is the story if we cant break this down trend line then the sector is in trouble and above here are the 3 highs in the 1360-1370 range  which has kept the market range bound. we need to break out of this range and then the bull will have returned until then.  being here will be dead money. 

yesterday gdx only mining index that was red. a breakout would inspire new money in the sector .   meanwhile the spy dia are in classic rising wedge patterns  , rising w/declining volume.  the full moon and eclipse beckons . next week shapes up to be interesting

dharma

[dharma]

the last big stimulus by china was january 16 , that set up the big rally in gold that occurred . yesterdays stimulus by china was also significant . lets see if it affects gold??? i am leaning that it will be positive for gold

dharma

[dharma]

well it looks like the correction/consolidation is taking the bullishness out of the market=serving its purpose. 

quiet a round here sshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

dharma